{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45c87ba1-b30d-4bd6-95f4-346bcfe8d291", "symbol": "600022", "name": "Shandong Iron and Steel Company Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.411, "architecture_energy": 24.62, "architecture_maturity": 89.179, "architecture_confidence": 70.579, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.59, "rotation_up": 30.54, "upward_expansion": 20.5, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 23.11, "downward_expansion": 56.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.346667, 1.321818, 1.341, 1.393978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.35, "trend_reference": 1.463, "distance_from_trend": -0.077239, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.418077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048007, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.347559, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.181818, "excess_performance": -0.138614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077239, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051642, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048007, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063298, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028875, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.03833, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 460262031, "relative_activity": 1.170759, "balance": 1.03833, "dry_up": 1.355995, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052991, "annualized_volatility": 0.302789, "from_high_reference": -0.262295, "from_low_reference": 0.106557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.463, "fair_value_reference": 1.418077, "structural_low": 1.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.007576, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.008462, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.183206, "worst_return": -0.089655, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.012582, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.260163, "worst_return": -0.068966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011577, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.013951, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.237705, "worst_return": -0.102941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012785, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040976, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.132353, "worst_return": -0.143655, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028369, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014706, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09396, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", 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"close": 1.29, "volume": 453872973, "typical_volume": 541043987.9, "trend": 1.486, "fair_value": 1.419872, "relative_strength": -15.814738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.03814, "energy": 81.791627, "activity_lines": [ 1.276667, 1.298909, 1.368524, 1.427978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.32, "volume": 585049225, "typical_volume": 489992686.75, "trend": 1.479667, "fair_value": 1.419231, "relative_strength": -8.233997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.129441, "energy": 60.070584, "activity_lines": [ 1.288667, 1.298, 1.356333, 1.417269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.32, "volume": 534402622, "typical_volume": 465988064.15, "trend": 1.473, "fair_value": 1.418654, "relative_strength": -9.15757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.277191, "energy": 46.321449, "activity_lines": [ 1.301333, 1.299455, 1.346286, 1.406968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.39, "volume": 552623661, "typical_volume": 436705022.3, "trend": 1.468333, "fair_value": 1.418526, "relative_strength": -4.460205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.804082, "energy": 27.679222, "activity_lines": [ 1.336, 1.314727, 1.344714, 1.401613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.35, "volume": 460262031, "typical_volume": 393131452.35, "trend": 1.463, "fair_value": 1.418077, "relative_strength": -9.347559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.410788, "energy": 24.619885, "activity_lines": [ 1.346667, 1.321818, 1.341, 1.393978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }