{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45ca4b1f-d57c-48c5-a7e1-bea9d25112c8", "symbol": "KBWD", "name": "INVESCO KBW HIGH DIVIDEND YIELD FINANCIAL ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.066, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.379, "architecture_energy": 12.011, "architecture_maturity": 21.642, "architecture_confidence": 59.918, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.15, "rotation_up": 25.48, "upward_expansion": 19.3, "deceleration": 39.93, "rotation_down": 28.69, "downward_expansion": 55.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.286623, 12.252523, 12.334612, 12.40049 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.63, "trend_reference": 12.587352, "distance_from_trend": 0.003388, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.129237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041286, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.930786, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.046901, "excess_performance": -0.234354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003388, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017703, "read": "Falling" 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11.788204, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.028864, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.004941, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.126412, "worst_return": -0.092731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.102546, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.050759, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.125911, "worst_return": -0.020963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.093671, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.069769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125113, "worst_return": -0.028807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 12.114677, "relative_strength": -12.275288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.032908, "energy": 21.965301, "activity_lines": [ 12.291249, 12.261444, 12.382165, 12.483978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.03, "volume": 2614801, "typical_volume": 1787862.25, "trend": 12.649264, "fair_value": 12.117144, "relative_strength": -13.114183, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.250444, "energy": 26.920608, "activity_lines": [ 12.224409, 12.219078, 12.347021, 12.441936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.99, "volume": 2167864, "typical_volume": 1800012.9, "trend": 12.613154, "fair_value": 12.121116, "relative_strength": -13.483266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.952804, "energy": 34.218323, "activity_lines": [ 12.143335, 12.17518, 12.310126, 12.399403 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.63, "volume": 2742198, "typical_volume": 1822937.75, "trend": 12.587352, "fair_value": 12.129237, "relative_strength": -12.930786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.378695, "energy": 12.01103, "activity_lines": [ 12.286623, 12.252523, 12.334612, 12.40049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }