{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45caf42f-5fff-4397-a6cc-5a3613463fbb", "symbol": "PMAM3", "name": "Paranapanema S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.739, "architecture_energy": 59.785, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.283, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.24, "rotation_up": 28.11, "upward_expansion": 9.91, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 53.86, "downward_expansion": 83.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.245333, 0.259818, 0.326891, 0.390662 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.16, "trend_reference": 0.489636, "distance_from_trend": -0.673226, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.965922, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.918613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -79.881769, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.768116, "excess_performance": -0.711068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.673226, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.240053, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.918613, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.798818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221105, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.768116, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.337197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39680000, "relative_activity": 2.454831, "balance": 0.337197, "dry_up": 2.298106, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.5, "annualized_volatility": 1.20391, "from_high_reference": -0.911111, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.489636, "fair_value_reference": 1.965922, "structural_low": 0.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.058285, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.645833, "median_excess_return": -0.069837, "regime_survival": 0.9375, "best_return": 0.44, "worst_return": -0.474576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.253555, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.208016, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.336207, "worst_return": -0.490566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.34574, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.279499, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.242424, "worst_return": -0.615942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178846, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016908, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.709524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.376147, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083744, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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"volume": 31677700, "typical_volume": 14615061.55, "trend": 0.506969, "fair_value": 1.998806, "relative_strength": -71.9939, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.192035, "energy": 50.161821, "activity_lines": [ 0.284667, 0.283273, 0.350697, 0.413047 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.16, "volume": 39680000, "typical_volume": 16164046.55, "trend": 0.489636, "fair_value": 1.965922, "relative_strength": -79.881769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.738796, "energy": 59.784816, "activity_lines": [ 0.245333, 0.259818, 0.326891, 0.390662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }