{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45d51480-8441-4cdb-b554-cb8e9c82703b", "symbol": "CGTX", "name": "Cognition Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.157, "architecture_energy": 47.397, "architecture_maturity": 5.001, "architecture_confidence": 81.08, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.7, "rotation_up": 8.46, "upward_expansion": 15.84, "deceleration": 45.42, "rotation_down": 63.35, "downward_expansion": 77.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.9819, 1.051236, 1.116033, 1.110286 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.08, "trend_reference": 1.122087, "distance_from_trend": -0.037508, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.207264, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105415, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.810179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018868, "excess_performance": -0.168586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037508, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116762, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105415, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16594, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018868, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.564708, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3677842, "relative_activity": 0.543376, "balance": 0.564708, "dry_up": 0.518177, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231446, "annualized_volatility": 0.968378, "from_high_reference": -0.718016, "from_low_reference": 0.963279 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.122087, "fair_value_reference": 1.207264, "structural_low": 0.5501, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.021254, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012815, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.564706, "worst_return": -0.40849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.160093, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.918684, "worst_return": -0.353692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.371157, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.185268, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.951576, "worst_return": -0.370787, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.298532, "energy": 29.631341, "activity_lines": [ 1.090933, 1.158691, 1.160257, 1.146837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9195, "volume": 1995131, "typical_volume": 6834309.05, "trend": 1.152433, "fair_value": 1.216241, "relative_strength": -39.415578, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.087583, "energy": 44.94035, "activity_lines": [ 1.01138, 1.11004, 1.140764, 1.130668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8896, "volume": 1912854, "typical_volume": 6782574.1, "trend": 1.133087, "fair_value": 1.210597, "relative_strength": -41.748225, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.092657, "energy": 55.517465, "activity_lines": [ 0.957227, 1.059962, 1.11895, 1.113711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.08, "volume": 3677842, "typical_volume": 6768503.85, "trend": 1.122087, "fair_value": 1.207264, "relative_strength": -32.810179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.157449, "energy": 47.396777, "activity_lines": [ 0.9819, 1.051236, 1.116033, 1.110286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }