{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45d8c7d5-9152-43e1-855e-7a0766fdf830", "symbol": "COTN", "name": "WisdomTree Cotton", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.677, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.108, "architecture_energy": 53.355, "architecture_maturity": 9.784, "architecture_confidence": 69.162, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.48, "rotation_up": 62.95, "upward_expansion": 82.74, "deceleration": 48.99, "rotation_down": 13.81, "downward_expansion": 9.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.2044, 2.168455, 2.163679, 2.125091 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.257, "trend_reference": 2.056857, "distance_from_trend": 0.097305, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.357072, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.3026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.258644, "excess_performance": 0.087752, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097305, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043115, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042456, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008578, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.258644, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.238097, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149995, "relative_activity": 0.621353, "balance": 0.238097, "dry_up": 0.592952, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046641, "annualized_volatility": 0.197846, "from_high_reference": -0.082707, "from_low_reference": 0.275862 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.056857, "fair_value_reference": 2.357072, "structural_low": 1.769, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.02261, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.020036, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.171692, "worst_return": -0.178736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.086371, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026936, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.221245, "worst_return": -0.215671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.064998, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.101568, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.453045, "worst_return": -0.255873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048578, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073361, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.118585, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.136, "volume": 225218, "typical_volume": 252869.25, "trend": 2.023563, "fair_value": 2.370197, "relative_strength": -6.112794, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.882463, "energy": 17.751165, "activity_lines": [ 2.1345, 2.124564, 2.138946, 2.090827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.19, "volume": 107498, "typical_volume": 254169.45, "trend": 2.034257, "fair_value": 2.365838, "relative_strength": -3.287261, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.711249, "energy": 27.922764, "activity_lines": [ 2.1547, 2.134727, 2.146709, 2.101565 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.187, "volume": 89845, "typical_volume": 245777.9, "trend": 2.045077, "fair_value": 2.361403, "relative_strength": -3.76644, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.73788, "energy": 35.007259, "activity_lines": [ 2.171467, 2.145273, 2.1525, 2.111419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.257, "volume": 149995, "typical_volume": 241400.8, "trend": 2.056857, "fair_value": 2.357072, "relative_strength": -3.3026, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.107684, "energy": 53.354595, "activity_lines": [ 2.2044, 2.168455, 2.163679, 2.125091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }