{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45dcbbb0-bd9f-48e5-be64-b6b86efaf6ac", "symbol": "300275", "name": "Chongqing Mas Sci.&Tech.Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.476, "architecture_energy": 53.953, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.509, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 27.27, "upward_expansion": 9.09, "deceleration": 60.88, "rotation_down": 51.93, "downward_expansion": 82.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.118667, 8.174909, 8.890766, 9.578243 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.58, "trend_reference": 10.621666, "distance_from_trend": -0.192217, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.977363, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.283649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.848255, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.346732, "excess_performance": -0.354132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128472, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.283649, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.298483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009107, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.346732, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.186382, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31557965, "relative_activity": 1.064945, "balance": 0.186382, "dry_up": 1.01817, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102029, "annualized_volatility": 0.331861, "from_high_reference": -0.454368, "from_low_reference": 0.180193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.621666, "fair_value_reference": 11.977363, "structural_low": 7.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.010743, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.010238, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.240344, "worst_return": -0.303442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042365, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.01349, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.143099, "worst_return": -0.271583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.285591, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.069213, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.233892, "worst_return": -0.339315, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 12.09855, "relative_strength": -36.976766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.777482, "energy": 80.972963, "activity_lines": [ 8.038, 8.4879, 9.395772, 10.128596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.48, "volume": 30981051, "typical_volume": 28861166.6, "trend": 10.937926, "fair_value": 12.053332, "relative_strength": -38.19452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.026679, "energy": 69.605203, "activity_lines": [ 7.812, 8.223199, 9.147939, 9.894095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.24, "volume": 28315843, "typical_volume": 29183546.7, "trend": 10.777783, "fair_value": 12.014512, "relative_strength": -30.013555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.05103, "energy": 62.527391, "activity_lines": [ 7.918, 8.154727, 8.994143, 9.720035 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.58, "volume": 31557965, "typical_volume": 29633426.95, "trend": 10.621666, "fair_value": 11.977363, "relative_strength": -29.848255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.476171, "energy": 53.953271, "activity_lines": [ 8.118667, 8.174909, 8.890766, 9.578243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }