{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45df3e71-28a7-4147-bf05-5f4078dc5538", "symbol": "LLYC", "name": "Llorente & Cuenca, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.299, "architecture_energy": 65.993, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.225, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.78, "rotation_up": 26.65, "upward_expansion": 11.32, "deceleration": 54.64, "rotation_down": 55.92, "downward_expansion": 82.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.760667, 4.824727, 4.986, 5.245935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.6, "trend_reference": 5.677667, "distance_from_trend": -0.189808, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.894009, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.41728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.060084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.342857, "excess_performance": -0.467288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189808, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121784, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.41728, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.420601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031861, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.342857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.348978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25187, "relative_activity": 2.645846, "balance": 1.348978, "dry_up": 1.240565, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050836, "annualized_volatility": 0.27055, "from_high_reference": -0.505376, "from_low_reference": 0.084906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.677667, "fair_value_reference": 7.894009, "structural_low": 4.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.027273, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.036241, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.156566, "worst_return": -0.128571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.020979, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.168246, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.181818, "worst_return": -0.257143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0225, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.12035, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.05391, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.9, "volume": 4854, "typical_volume": 8951.45, "trend": 5.836333, "fair_value": 7.960824, "relative_strength": -38.8891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.901511, "energy": 45.250146, "activity_lines": [ 4.960667, 4.941455, 5.10419, 5.397699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.64, "volume": 13371, "typical_volume": 8485.3, "trend": 5.756, "fair_value": 7.928162, "relative_strength": -41.535906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.20444, "energy": 58.60568, "activity_lines": [ 4.866667, 4.881636, 5.043524, 5.320516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.6, "volume": 25187, "typical_volume": 9519.45, "trend": 5.677667, "fair_value": 7.894009, "relative_strength": -42.060084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.299439, "energy": 65.993031, "activity_lines": [ 4.760667, 4.824727, 4.986, 5.245935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }