{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45e5fa57-24d0-424b-bdf4-e251d1c834e4", "symbol": "000615", "name": "Jointown Aesthetics Valley Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.336, "architecture_energy": 28.108, "architecture_maturity": 11.216, "architecture_confidence": 67.473, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.06, "rotation_up": 17.25, "upward_expansion": 4.98, "deceleration": 48.37, "rotation_down": 53.39, "downward_expansion": 75.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.178667, 3.199273, 3.305857, 3.317011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.44, "trend_reference": 3.318, "distance_from_trend": 0.036769, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.123761, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.619768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.457348, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120521, "excess_performance": 0.113121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036769, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08379, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.619768, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062948, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.194573, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049802, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120521, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.420029, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48564040, "relative_activity": 1.253, "balance": 3.420029, "dry_up": 0.795875, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082961, "annualized_volatility": 0.348477, "from_high_reference": -0.122449, "from_low_reference": 0.974293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.318, "fair_value_reference": 2.123761, "structural_low": 2.75, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.01487, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022295, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.189434, "worst_return": -0.466129, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.301415, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.28842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.118959, "worst_return": -0.483871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.416411, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.292444, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.345725, "worst_return": -0.487097, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096606, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045593, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06135, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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"energy": 60.748928, "activity_lines": [ 3.074667, 3.171455, 3.296381, 3.309247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.44, "volume": 48564040, "typical_volume": 38758200.45, "trend": 3.318, "fair_value": 2.123761, "relative_strength": 19.457348, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.335906, "energy": 28.108253, "activity_lines": [ 3.178667, 3.199273, 3.305857, 3.317011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }