{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45e99603-b217-4627-8e90-011f0a589fd6", "symbol": "EVD", "name": "CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.87, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.267, "architecture_energy": 14.712, "architecture_maturity": 10.663, "architecture_confidence": 72.549, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.1, "rotation_up": 38.18, "upward_expansion": 33.0, "deceleration": 39.64, "rotation_down": 15.13, "downward_expansion": 41.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.0, 56.430908, 55.730875, 56.589142 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.150002, "trend_reference": 59.099907, "distance_from_trend": 0.000848, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 75.186314, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213288, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.212043, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.118256, "excess_performance": -0.292503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000848, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213288, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065515, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.30212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12828, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.118256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.547124, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.972763, "balance": 1.547124, "dry_up": 1.719358, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073736, "annualized_volatility": 0.555201, "from_high_reference": -0.395777, "from_low_reference": 0.238546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.099907, "fair_value_reference": 75.186314, "structural_low": 47.757622, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.042819, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.000765, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.227064, "worst_return": -0.156693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.040625, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047027, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.191111, "worst_return": -0.098755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.113389, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.041819, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.258148, "worst_return": -0.148636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.058333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.096938, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.409267, "worst_return": -0.187571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090686, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.148636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086705, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075704, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017533, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096416, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040216, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062139, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020253, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.311013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04969, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 56.010849, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4.0, "trend": 56.881454, "fair_value": 52.725128, "relative_strength": 4.620454, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.944788, "energy": 32.451918, "activity_lines": [ 54.256666, 54.394922, 54.943972, 57.316769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 56.799999, "volume": 894, "typical_volume": 212.35, "trend": 60.914704, "fair_value": 75.183023, "relative_strength": -33.672278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.591616, "energy": 19.046227, "activity_lines": [ 55.456666, 54.795518, 54.978632, 57.011053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.349998, "volume": 320, "typical_volume": 195.6, "trend": 60.26605, "fair_value": 75.162511, "relative_strength": -33.889765, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.362944, "energy": 17.499013, "activity_lines": [ 56.089999, 55.070793, 55.019169, 56.716555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.849998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 195.6, "trend": 59.708855, "fair_value": 75.182223, "relative_strength": -29.705342, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.949319, "energy": 13.805702, "activity_lines": [ 57.303332, 55.75909, 55.341482, 56.625197 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.150002, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 205.6, "trend": 59.099907, "fair_value": 75.186314, "relative_strength": -30.212043, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.267486, "energy": 14.711531, "activity_lines": [ 58.0, 56.430908, 55.730875, 56.589142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }