{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45ebf002-6114-45ea-be74-717d7f8ea250", "symbol": "PAJP", "name": "Invesco MSCI Japan ESG Climate Paris Aligned UCITS USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.967, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.657, "architecture_energy": 25.915, "architecture_maturity": 73.303, "architecture_confidence": 86.368, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.98, "rotation_up": 33.25, "upward_expansion": 58.94, "deceleration": 85.19, "rotation_down": 34.91, "downward_expansion": 22.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.524833, 5.543364, 5.509418, 5.451231 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.6805, "trend_reference": 5.397225, "distance_from_trend": 0.052485, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.637332, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.22495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.77799, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.060487, "excess_performance": 0.009252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052485, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023648, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.22495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007361, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043456, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.060487, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.686308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37554, "relative_activity": 0.102602, "balance": 19.686308, "dry_up": 0.283199, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030096, "annualized_volatility": 0.227408, "from_high_reference": -0.004992, "from_low_reference": 0.172385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.397225, "fair_value_reference": 4.637332, "structural_low": 4.8975, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.000789, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.01238, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.050974, "worst_return": -0.097729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030523, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.028493, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.073979, "worst_return": -0.0681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013382, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017524, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.12874, "worst_return": -0.043436, "sufficient": true }, 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5.3885, "volume": 175521, "typical_volume": 354904.1, "trend": 5.367625, "fair_value": 4.610686, "relative_strength": -3.385278, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.234372, "energy": 32.517359, "activity_lines": [ 5.5575, 5.551227, 5.472795, 5.424846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.377, "volume": 19264, "typical_volume": 355134.6, "trend": 5.375575, "fair_value": 4.617811, "relative_strength": -4.738178, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.574829, "energy": 16.332174, "activity_lines": [ 5.4851, 5.523636, 5.473285, 5.425451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.481, "volume": 182283, "typical_volume": 364152.55, "trend": 5.386342, "fair_value": 4.6268, "relative_strength": -4.040761, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.080783, "energy": 19.46925, "activity_lines": [ 5.4695, 5.515655, 5.482783, 5.432253 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.6805, "volume": 37554, "typical_volume": 366016.0, "trend": 5.397225, "fair_value": 4.637332, "relative_strength": -0.77799, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.65702, "energy": 25.914575, "activity_lines": [ 5.524833, 5.543364, 5.509418, 5.451231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }