{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45ec1dfe-7754-4f64-92d7-63e35a555a89", "symbol": "ESPO", "name": "VANECK VIDEO GAMING AND ESPORTS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.208, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.973, "architecture_energy": 54.338, "architecture_maturity": 10.049, "architecture_confidence": 66.411, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.3, "rotation_up": 72.35, "upward_expansion": 53.69, "deceleration": 17.0, "rotation_down": 17.29, "downward_expansion": 26.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 94.31278, 92.342747, 91.145797, 91.172718 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 99.33, "trend_reference": 92.347793, "distance_from_trend": 0.075608, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 81.970196, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211782, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.081501, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047012, "excess_performance": -0.140442, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.075608, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053753, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211782, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065868, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136955, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047012, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.036361, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113879, "relative_activity": 1.386288, "balance": 1.036361, "dry_up": 1.103681, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035732, "annualized_volatility": 0.209152, "from_high_reference": -0.182334, "from_low_reference": 0.169551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 92.347793, "fair_value_reference": 81.970196, "structural_low": 84.93, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025179, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.005371, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.12128, "worst_return": -0.056426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023457, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050942, "worst_return": -0.079814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041466, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028298, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.22119, "worst_return": -0.206196, "sufficient": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -24.20621, "energy": 12.967037, "activity_lines": [ 90.235313, 89.497784, 89.918469, 91.111103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 91.2084, "volume": 37359, "typical_volume": 87972.65, "trend": 93.400547, "fair_value": 81.212848, "relative_strength": -19.596018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.693147, "energy": 17.428178, "activity_lines": [ 90.836033, 89.840384, 90.006958, 90.941803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 88.8377, "volume": 63276, "typical_volume": 81313.5, "trend": 92.869773, "fair_value": 81.417911, "relative_strength": -19.864378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.568232, "energy": 23.69974, "activity_lines": [ 90.42996, 89.737984, 89.881912, 90.647426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.1906, "volume": 148141, "typical_volume": 80697.2, "trend": 92.508793, "fair_value": 81.671462, "relative_strength": -14.964483, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.915552, "energy": 17.854385, "activity_lines": [ 91.770793, 90.619425, 90.274249, 90.73264 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 99.33, "volume": 113879, "typical_volume": 82146.7, "trend": 92.347793, "fair_value": 81.970196, "relative_strength": -14.081501, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.973059, "energy": 54.337771, "activity_lines": [ 94.31278, 92.342747, 91.145797, 91.172718 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }