{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45ece88f-c037-40a5-9286-8aa1fd24b200", "symbol": "2569", "name": "Listed Index Fund US Equity (NASDAQ100) Currency Hedge", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.611, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.534, "architecture_energy": 27.926, "architecture_maturity": 67.28, "architecture_confidence": 78.849, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.57, "rotation_up": 27.93, "upward_expansion": 58.52, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 31.53, "downward_expansion": 19.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 4216.133333, 4248.511967, 4238.782385, 4127.104179 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4304.0, "trend_reference": 3990.720475, "distance_from_trend": 0.078502, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3278.447283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312817, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.585958, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.183718, "excess_performance": -0.02554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.078502, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044633, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.312817, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043464, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.183718, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.853847, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225014, "relative_activity": 1.793598, "balance": 1.853847, "dry_up": 1.128047, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031693, "annualized_volatility": 0.167636, "from_high_reference": -0.031456, "from_low_reference": 0.281715 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3990.720475, "fair_value_reference": 3278.447283, "structural_low": 3358.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.038772, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.019893, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.069228, "worst_return": -0.009711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062023, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01022, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.154737, "worst_return": -0.126518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.137793, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166762, "worst_return": 0.043605, "sufficient": false 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065962, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.079045, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000261, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026008, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00986, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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"energy": 37.763805, "activity_lines": [ 4272.64987, 4309.581836, 4203.172112, 4081.168304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4137.0, "volume": 54139, "typical_volume": 120613.1, "trend": 3961.820565, "fair_value": 3256.782918, "relative_strength": -10.772299, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.42114, "energy": 27.453045, "activity_lines": [ 4218.528744, 4274.988849, 4211.259663, 4093.143386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4158.0, "volume": 174186, "typical_volume": 118813.5, "trend": 3973.787142, "fair_value": 3266.978826, "relative_strength": -9.459232, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.700259, "energy": 26.667319, "activity_lines": [ 4189.995801, 4246.941318, 4219.318643, 4105.800124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4304.0, "volume": 225014, "typical_volume": 125453.95, "trend": 3990.720475, "fair_value": 3278.447283, "relative_strength": -7.585958, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.533785, "energy": 27.926271, "activity_lines": [ 4216.133333, 4248.511967, 4238.782385, 4127.104179 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }