{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45ee9c14-ee4c-4663-99f9-a069c8f5dceb", "symbol": "PEY", "name": "INVESCO HIGH YIELD EQUITY DIVIDEND ACHIEVERS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.656, "architecture_energy": 78.157, "architecture_maturity": 41.812, "architecture_confidence": 71.866, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 80.5, "upward_expansion": 93.56, "deceleration": 44.2, "rotation_down": 12.75, "downward_expansion": 15.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.439243, 24.047513, 23.337187, 22.816 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 24.9642, "trend_reference": 22.236772, "distance_from_trend": 0.122654, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.768103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262853, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.168126, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.135301, "excess_performance": -0.052153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.122654, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057865, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262853, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115491, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021681, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127586, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135301, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.410575, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1374238, "relative_activity": 0.858692, "balance": 1.410575, "dry_up": 0.74891, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032431, "annualized_volatility": 0.15123, "from_high_reference": -0.003823, "from_low_reference": 0.309533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.236772, "fair_value_reference": 19.768103, "structural_low": 20.305749, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.002015, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.021315, "regime_survival": 0.64, "best_return": 0.08033, "worst_return": -0.099653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.020897, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.048772, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.11588, "worst_return": -0.064736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003325, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016308, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.096184, "worst_return": -0.077436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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[ 23.431108, 23.091102, 22.500439, 22.158175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.462621, "volume": 896089, "typical_volume": 1806861.0, "trend": 21.832422, "fair_value": 19.640543, "relative_strength": 4.032751, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.269482, "energy": 84.60838, "activity_lines": [ 23.811147, 23.3995, 22.73315, 22.337234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.19, "volume": 984743, "typical_volume": 1752807.7, "trend": 21.965866, "fair_value": 19.68318, "relative_strength": 4.598592, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.175709, "energy": 79.48601, "activity_lines": [ 24.022896, 23.614733, 22.925919, 22.489335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.1644, "volume": 1539105, "typical_volume": 1683015.15, "trend": 22.099439, "fair_value": 19.724253, "relative_strength": 3.938617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.807521, "energy": 67.075409, "activity_lines": [ 24.123022, 23.77495, 23.101736, 22.631176 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.9642, "volume": 1374238, "typical_volume": 1600384.5, "trend": 22.236772, "fair_value": 19.768103, "relative_strength": 2.168126, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.656049, "energy": 78.157076, "activity_lines": [ 24.439243, 24.047513, 23.337187, 22.816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }