{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45f0f486-605b-4236-bb50-2df49a7ea5b5", "symbol": "601616", "name": "Shanghai Guangdian Electric Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.027, "architecture_energy": 47.305, "architecture_maturity": 73.397, "architecture_confidence": 62.533, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.58, "rotation_up": 26.4, "upward_expansion": 19.53, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 47.98, "downward_expansion": 71.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.532, 3.517455, 3.818048, 4.123892 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.67, "trend_reference": 4.462333, "distance_from_trend": -0.17756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.666507, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000953, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.365816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25102, "excess_performance": -0.207817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000953, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301128, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144786, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25102, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.509039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 250356499, "relative_activity": 2.129367, "balance": 1.509039, "dry_up": 1.370772, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099769, "annualized_volatility": 0.414113, "from_high_reference": -0.45142, "from_low_reference": 0.191558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.462333, "fair_value_reference": 3.666507, "structural_low": 3.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.041801, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.235294, "median_excess_return": 0.020836, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.09894, "worst_return": -0.142012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.083859, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.043616, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.234848, "worst_return": -0.044379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061739, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.050501, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.469965, "worst_return": -0.065089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 3.37, "volume": 82365900, "typical_volume": 183721439.1, "trend": 4.514, "fair_value": 3.659924, "relative_strength": -22.627365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.839116, "energy": 90.837459, "activity_lines": [ 3.483333, 3.728364, 4.143048, 4.380796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.3, "volume": 85627457, "typical_volume": 168470179.85, "trend": 4.493, "fair_value": 3.660305, "relative_strength": -19.206179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.693551, "energy": 89.59148, "activity_lines": [ 3.4, 3.607273, 4.026714, 4.302473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.34, "volume": 122156980, "typical_volume": 150759918.75, "trend": 4.476333, "fair_value": 3.660942, "relative_strength": -18.980859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.860076, "energy": 73.846447, "activity_lines": [ 3.358667, 3.519091, 3.924667, 4.228086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.66, "volume": 186523138, "typical_volume": 125312842.3, "trend": 4.468667, "fair_value": 3.663631, "relative_strength": -11.418671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.512097, "energy": 61.06667, "activity_lines": [ 3.451333, 3.509818, 3.866524, 4.175419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.67, "volume": 250356499, "typical_volume": 117573192.1, "trend": 4.462333, "fair_value": 3.666507, "relative_strength": -13.365816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.026802, "energy": 47.304996, "activity_lines": [ 3.532, 3.517455, 3.818048, 4.123892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }