{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45f4ec0a-ae28-4a6f-8d8c-e5ef987dd950", "symbol": "FRACTL", "name": "Fractal Gaming Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.233, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.176, "architecture_energy": 34.731, "architecture_maturity": 45.019, "architecture_confidence": 81.839, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.0, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 20.58, "deceleration": 40.54, "rotation_down": 36.09, "downward_expansion": 59.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.328, 14.272364, 14.479238, 14.862193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.6, "trend_reference": 15.764, "distance_from_trend": -0.073839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.296331, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.533492, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -46.249738, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.097744, "excess_performance": 0.03625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.533492, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042327, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.462497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134252, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097744, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.265572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70112, "relative_activity": 0.808146, "balance": 2.265572, "dry_up": 0.74192, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039515, "annualized_volatility": 0.361728, "from_high_reference": -0.717602, "from_low_reference": 0.216667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.764, "fair_value_reference": 31.296331, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.008253, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.037582, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.197101, "worst_return": -0.330909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042857, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.03432, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.377419, "worst_return": -0.57508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.109814, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.033778, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.278443, "worst_return": -0.552716, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -52.468553, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.433972, "energy": 39.162962, "activity_lines": [ 14.216, 14.150182, 14.811333, 15.544236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.1, "volume": 34939, "typical_volume": 99598.0, "trend": 17.191333, "fair_value": 31.68425, "relative_strength": -50.51995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.036668, "energy": 37.150477, "activity_lines": [ 14.188, 14.147273, 14.704095, 15.31071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.26, "volume": 134298, "typical_volume": 91630.1, "trend": 16.678333, "fair_value": 31.567943, "relative_strength": -49.193318, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.021999, "energy": 35.082543, "activity_lines": [ 14.206667, 14.171636, 14.615048, 15.121591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.22, "volume": 18117, "typical_volume": 88224.2, "trend": 16.162333, "fair_value": 31.44332, "relative_strength": -48.3832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.197386, "energy": 35.976798, "activity_lines": [ 14.208, 14.189455, 14.527905, 14.962989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.6, "volume": 70112, "typical_volume": 86756.65, "trend": 15.764, "fair_value": 31.296331, "relative_strength": -46.249738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.176018, "energy": 34.731259, "activity_lines": [ 14.328, 14.272364, 14.479238, 14.862193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }