{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45f5d8cc-997c-4569-ac27-ec125c62c14f", "symbol": "ALAGO", "name": "E-Pango SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.926, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.14, "architecture_energy": 43.732, "architecture_maturity": 10.185, "architecture_confidence": 61.081, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.01, "rotation_up": 26.76, "upward_expansion": 16.88, "deceleration": 46.62, "rotation_down": 51.58, "downward_expansion": 56.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.131193, 0.135289, 0.15453, 0.161326 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.155, "trend_reference": 0.159353, "distance_from_trend": -0.027319, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.399144, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.611669, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.355271, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.291667, "excess_performance": 0.238355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027319, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.611669, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055591, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083553, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235672, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.291667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.375234, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7562710, "relative_activity": 0.990237, "balance": 1.375234, "dry_up": 0.446606, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211514, "annualized_volatility": 1.6576, "from_high_reference": -0.624516, "from_low_reference": 1.129121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.159353, "fair_value_reference": 0.399144, "structural_low": 0.0822, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.127737, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.08013, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.127737, "worst_return": -0.127737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.186131, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.243331, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.186131, "worst_return": -0.186131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.440876, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.590945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.440876, "worst_return": -0.440876, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.94854, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -1.040583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.94854, "worst_return": -0.94854, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.902185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.450428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.431438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.281796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19852, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.580882, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092284, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11147, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.381323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.264961, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.308105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.455399, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.86, "volume": 32526, "typical_volume": 106018.8, "trend": 1.885333, "fair_value": 2.865918, "relative_strength": 19.643526, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.036996, "energy": 16.156804, "activity_lines": [ 1.984667, 2.063818, 2.030714, 1.928989 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 2.23, "volume": 308626, "typical_volume": 114392.35, "trend": 1.866333, "fair_value": 2.860189, "relative_strength": 39.629007, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.108042, "energy": 18.814395, "activity_lines": [ 2.052, 2.088273, 2.060643, 1.951226 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.04, "volume": 258534, "typical_volume": 123168.45, "trend": 1.852667, "fair_value": 2.852866, "relative_strength": 24.398101, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.934502, "energy": 13.965385, "activity_lines": [ 2.048667, 2.076182, 2.069, 1.96243 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 1.875, "volume": 61273, "typical_volume": 124386.8, "trend": 1.848167, "fair_value": 2.844212, "relative_strength": 13.469234, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.31804, "energy": 57.634823, "activity_lines": [ 1.556, 1.745364, 1.908929, 1.896043 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 1.38, "volume": 43175, "typical_volume": 103586.05, "trend": 1.8095, "fair_value": 2.796889, "relative_strength": -17.772487, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.15059, "energy": 64.603646, "activity_lines": [ 1.457667, 1.657636, 1.851595, 1.867645 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 1.305, "volume": 10230, "typical_volume": 102020.05, "trend": 1.802667, "fair_value": 2.784246, "relative_strength": -22.328099, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.430434, "energy": 67.872989, "activity_lines": [ 1.378333, 1.570091, 1.789119, 1.835097 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 1.405, "volume": 40777, "typical_volume": 89243.7, "trend": 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"relative_strength": -21.165654, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.426422, "energy": 35.678359, "activity_lines": [ 0.143687, 0.152635, 0.175002, 0.17006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.1065, "volume": 2164413, "typical_volume": 7292668.05, "trend": 0.15974, "fair_value": 0.436092, "relative_strength": -34.424295, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.647695, "energy": 52.437395, "activity_lines": [ 0.129313, 0.143011, 0.168086, 0.166594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.113, "volume": 2151899, "typical_volume": 7307731.3, "trend": 0.159087, "fair_value": 0.423099, "relative_strength": -30.487669, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.686533, "energy": 62.478415, "activity_lines": [ 0.121033, 0.136027, 0.161796, 0.163578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.128, "volume": 1764371, "typical_volume": 7299297.45, "trend": 0.15882, "fair_value": 0.411035, "relative_strength": -22.357172, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.936361, "energy": 63.492253, "activity_lines": [ 0.12022, 0.133104, 0.156925, 0.161573 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.155, "volume": 7562710, "typical_volume": 7637271.95, "trend": 0.159353, "fair_value": 0.399144, "relative_strength": -8.355271, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.139832, "energy": 43.73182, "activity_lines": [ 0.131193, 0.135289, 0.15453, 0.161326 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }