{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45f7fca1-0dab-4af7-a5bb-249debdb7231", "symbol": "605289", "name": "Shanghai Luoman Technologies Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.817, "architecture_energy": 24.61, "architecture_maturity": 68.747, "architecture_confidence": 70.79, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.72, "rotation_up": 17.64, "upward_expansion": 44.44, "deceleration": 85.15, "rotation_down": 47.75, "downward_expansion": 36.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.525333, 109.955455, 110.91415, 104.636535 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 104.489998, "trend_reference": 93.141465, "distance_from_trend": 0.121842, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.238412, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.732592, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 46.143111, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.823534, "excess_performance": 0.866738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121842, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.311812, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.732592, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.122012, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.461431, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.782927, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.823534, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26636149, "relative_activity": 1.049852, "balance": 0.462397, "dry_up": 1.024139, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164649, "annualized_volatility": 0.96018, "from_high_reference": -0.263636, "from_low_reference": 3.177505 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.141465, "fair_value_reference": 38.238412, "structural_low": 48.079657, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.078446, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.105419, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.439607, "worst_return": -0.329727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.140449, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.166138, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.991962, "worst_return": 0.00694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.481986, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.481363, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.677543, "worst_return": -0.439389, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.545448, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.473963, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.285113, "worst_return": -0.194217, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071609, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.183153, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.02618, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170213, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.122122, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145372, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.460848, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.557463, "energy": 43.963421, "activity_lines": [ 122.314001, 121.580569, 113.344601, 103.35913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.0, "volume": 28436575, "typical_volume": 26154952.15, "trend": 89.913041, "fair_value": 37.391619, "relative_strength": 48.44228, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.236724, "energy": 18.553036, "activity_lines": [ 112.668001, 117.921273, 112.783724, 104.049022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.75, "volume": 24341535, "typical_volume": 25629330.2, "trend": 91.220502, "fair_value": 37.737751, "relative_strength": 25.857879, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.081889, "energy": 22.023802, "activity_lines": [ 101.239334, 112.050909, 110.934554, 103.780438 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 104.489998, "volume": 26636149, "typical_volume": 25371340.6, "trend": 93.141465, "fair_value": 38.238412, "relative_strength": 46.143111, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.816654, "energy": 24.610384, "activity_lines": [ 99.525333, 109.955455, 110.91415, 104.636535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }