{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "460563a8-d78c-4c1f-b6e6-0607a4771bc0",
    "symbol": "ANX",
    "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Nasdaq-100 Swap ETF EUR Acc",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 47.818,
    "architecture_energy": 30.998,
    "architecture_maturity": 69.064,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.403,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.88,
        "rotation_up": 31.55,
        "upward_expansion": 62.34,
        "deceleration": 85.49,
        "rotation_down": 30.88,
        "downward_expansion": 21.34
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        287.853339,
        290.726367,
        288.328096,
        279.171291
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 294.75,
    "trend_reference": 267.76,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.100799,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 217.980427,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.352186,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 7.251673,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.221003,
    "excess_performance": 0.167691,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.100799,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0601,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.352186,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017092,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072517,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.094431,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.221003,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.762903,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8018,
      "relative_activity": 0.766199,
      "balance": 0.762903,
      "dry_up": 1.220968,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.033718,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.187082,
      "from_high_reference": -0.02851,
      "from_low_reference": 0.31
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 267.76,
      "fair_value_reference": 217.980427,
      "structural_low": 230.449997,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.015723,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020765,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.087702,
        "worst_return": -0.011881,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.043353,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.05728,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.167535,
        "worst_return": -0.116674,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.084701,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.066696,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.213024,
        "worst_return": 0.001783,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.148426,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.096605,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.290135,
        "worst_return": -0.141309,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-10-27",
        "end": "2023-11-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.079448,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-11-24",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.137898,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.029959,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.030552,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.097707,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.060038,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.117681,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.168033,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011713,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040252,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.076153,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.103148,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011317,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033485,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "typical_volume": 12301.6,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 12037.3,
        "trend": 246.80855,
        "fair_value": 205.570875,
        "relative_strength": 10.485716,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "activity_lines": [
          260.113332,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 11892.5,
        "trend": 251.210001,
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        "energy": 95.300896,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 11684.3,
        "trend": 252.58,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 3095,
        "typical_volume": 11116.0,
        "trend": 254.261666,
        "fair_value": 210.163375,
        "relative_strength": 17.331541,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 10880.45,
        "trend": 255.808332,
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        "relative_strength": 14.634077,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "fair_value": 212.877798,
        "relative_strength": 13.486098,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.239267,
        "energy": 66.025747,
        "activity_lines": [
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          268.71688
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 297.0,
        "volume": 383,
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        "trend": 260.926666,
        "fair_value": 213.783567,
        "relative_strength": 12.410091,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 65.027937,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 298.149994,
        "volume": 11408,
        "typical_volume": 9603.7,
        "trend": 262.691666,
        "fair_value": 214.685042,
        "relative_strength": 14.611711,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.232228,
        "energy": 64.708986,
        "activity_lines": [
          297.473332,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 285.950012,
        "volume": 10441,
        "typical_volume": 9711.4,
        "trend": 263.988333,
        "fair_value": 215.509208,
        "relative_strength": 9.560112,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.305455,
        "energy": 51.55305,
        "activity_lines": [
          293.696669,
          294.72,
          285.029999,
          275.04301
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 285.200012,
        "volume": 4881,
        "typical_volume": 9485.4,
        "trend": 265.22,
        "fair_value": 216.302798,
        "relative_strength": 8.493155,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.377315,
        "energy": 40.790531,
        "activity_lines": [
          290.17334,
          293.039093,
          286.189048,
          276.411505
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 279.600006,
        "volume": 27768,
        "typical_volume": 10360.2,
        "trend": 266.353333,
        "fair_value": 217.082029,
        "relative_strength": 4.453169,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.989232,
        "energy": 27.914611,
        "activity_lines": [
          285.996673,
          290.390003,
          286.620715,
          277.339248
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 294.75,
        "volume": 8018,
        "typical_volume": 10464.65,
        "trend": 267.76,
        "fair_value": 217.980427,
        "relative_strength": 7.251673,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.817608,
        "energy": 30.997565,
        "activity_lines": [
          287.853339,
          290.726367,
          288.328096,
          279.171291
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}