{ "ticker": { "uuid": "460cbe3a-6f14-4ac2-b219-ad8001577490", "symbol": "POWL", "name": "Powell Industries Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.602, "architecture_energy": 38.903, "architecture_maturity": 39.453, "architecture_confidence": 57.982, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.58, "rotation_up": 14.42, "upward_expansion": 24.48, "deceleration": 56.45, "rotation_down": 67.48, "downward_expansion": 45.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 219.128, 236.195818, 253.201804, 243.206781 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 211.56, "trend_reference": 224.031212, "distance_from_trend": -0.055667, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 95.13141, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.223871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.984672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087273, "excess_performance": -0.100181, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055667, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262576, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.223871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.888344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.089847, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.993548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087273, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.775916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5055515, "relative_activity": 1.499493, "balance": 0.775916, "dry_up": 1.296791, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176577, "annualized_volatility": 0.526564, "from_high_reference": -0.354786, "from_low_reference": 1.699796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 224.031212, "fair_value_reference": 95.13141, "structural_low": 157.451053, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.126349, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.041676, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.409338, "worst_return": -0.287313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05051, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.016223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.560458, "worst_return": -0.311117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.86604, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.740743, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.499982, "worst_return": -0.252393, "sufficient": 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280.759124, 263.41964, 240.083629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 232.19, "volume": 3268837, "typical_volume": 2721487.4, "trend": 209.974507, "fair_value": 90.051542, "relative_strength": 25.584693, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.585733, "energy": 19.093974, "activity_lines": [ 258.315333, 271.272964, 262.73656, 241.774793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 232.79, "volume": 5137258, "typical_volume": 2921879.35, "trend": 214.03835, "fair_value": 91.418113, "relative_strength": 29.429331, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.080824, "energy": 20.779507, "activity_lines": [ 245.896, 262.678597, 261.872636, 243.24676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 232.21, "volume": 2727226, "typical_volume": 3005320.15, "trend": 217.994489, "fair_value": 92.778867, "relative_strength": 29.34464, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.248672, "energy": 20.367573, "activity_lines": [ 237.414, 255.369636, 260.675786, 244.419125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 208.68, "volume": 4568438, "typical_volume": 3176144.75, "trend": 221.036846, "fair_value": 93.944555, "relative_strength": 14.211573, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.3786, "energy": 26.280863, "activity_lines": [ 225.421333, 244.879636, 256.899666, 243.81819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 211.56, "volume": 5055515, "typical_volume": 3371482.85, "trend": 224.031212, "fair_value": 95.13141, "relative_strength": 8.984672, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.602351, "energy": 38.902657, "activity_lines": [ 219.128, 236.195818, 253.201804, 243.206781 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }