{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4611c240-7f78-4f0c-b77c-be9b88cc6092", "symbol": "ERD", "name": "Erdene Resource Development Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.87, "architecture_energy": 21.728, "architecture_maturity": 94.197, "architecture_confidence": 86.918, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.79, "rotation_up": 29.65, "upward_expansion": 17.77, "deceleration": 44.0, "rotation_down": 28.11, "downward_expansion": 63.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.612667, 5.474727, 5.661905, 5.978065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.28, "trend_reference": 6.588667, "distance_from_trend": -0.046848, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.574231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372908, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.791439, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.192802, "excess_performance": -0.313223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046848, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103786, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372908, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227914, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000472, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192802, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.826449, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 360400, "relative_activity": 0.849279, "balance": 0.826449, "dry_up": 0.660642, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08856, "annualized_volatility": 0.654732, "from_high_reference": -0.426484, "from_low_reference": 0.38326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.588667, "fair_value_reference": 4.574231, "structural_low": 4.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.031754, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.036854, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.153846, "worst_return": -0.179487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.064012, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.083594, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.205128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09375, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014227, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.321429, "worst_return": -0.282051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.22, "volume": 261200, "typical_volume": 512430.0, "trend": 6.951333, "fair_value": 4.488974, "relative_strength": -35.061853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.652275, "energy": 74.91288, "activity_lines": [ 5.347333, 5.520909, 5.85981, 6.319204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.79, "volume": 229400, "typical_volume": 488325.0, "trend": 6.859667, "fair_value": 4.505064, "relative_strength": -39.99424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.437706, "energy": 68.593392, "activity_lines": [ 5.164, 5.353818, 5.722714, 6.179763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.49, "volume": 393500, "typical_volume": 468325.0, "trend": 6.749667, "fair_value": 4.526026, "relative_strength": -31.124879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.560562, "energy": 51.803118, "activity_lines": [ 5.254667, 5.340182, 5.671762, 6.091398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.38, "volume": 138100, "typical_volume": 451245.0, "trend": 6.667, "fair_value": 4.546667, "relative_strength": -31.866563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.463934, "energy": 48.700111, "activity_lines": [ 5.286, 5.318545, 5.620095, 6.003032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.28, "volume": 360400, "typical_volume": 424360.0, "trend": 6.588667, "fair_value": 4.574231, "relative_strength": -22.791439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.870071, "energy": 21.727971, "activity_lines": [ 5.612667, 5.474727, 5.661905, 5.978065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }