{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46176ef9-7e64-4542-8692-92459fb973c9", "symbol": "AGMI", "name": "THEMES SILVER MINERS ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.409, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.269, "architecture_energy": 20.053, "architecture_maturity": 36.16, "architecture_confidence": 59.215, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.58, "rotation_up": 25.09, "upward_expansion": 16.21, "deceleration": 60.82, "rotation_down": 38.77, "downward_expansion": 66.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.848633, 63.177273, 65.360522, 67.224172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 71.7409, "trend_reference": 70.224647, "distance_from_trend": 0.021591, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.082672, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.665192, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.277536, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04558, "excess_performance": -0.233033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021591, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020182, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.665192, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196439, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002775, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04558, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.489987, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8937, "relative_activity": 0.84147, "balance": 0.489987, "dry_up": 0.52932, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091067, "annualized_volatility": 0.599028, "from_high_reference": -0.218509, "from_low_reference": 0.912979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.224647, "fair_value_reference": 43.082672, "structural_low": 57.27, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.132587, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.072471, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.132587, "worst_return": -0.132587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.19406, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.259712, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143096, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": 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"fair_value": 42.694019, "relative_strength": -9.079267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.518737, "energy": 58.159727, "activity_lines": [ 60.554893, 62.403424, 65.538939, 67.793457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.8968, "volume": 4503, "typical_volume": 11617.65, "trend": 70.15995, "fair_value": 42.839806, "relative_strength": -11.458224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.045377, "energy": 56.232974, "activity_lines": [ 60.15026, 61.634029, 64.860401, 67.122175 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.7409, "volume": 8937, "typical_volume": 10620.7, "trend": 70.224647, "fair_value": 43.082672, "relative_strength": 0.277536, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.268563, "energy": 20.052902, "activity_lines": [ 63.848633, 63.177273, 65.360522, 67.224172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }