{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46220d58-a7ce-4eb3-9df7-4c646c6b4a10", "symbol": "MGY", "name": "Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 81.288, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.555, "architecture_energy": 43.535, "architecture_maturity": 17.304, "architecture_confidence": 94.515, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.99, "rotation_up": 19.29, "upward_expansion": 6.49, "deceleration": 46.65, "rotation_down": 57.22, "downward_expansion": 82.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.636, 25.918, 26.842457, 27.391373 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.08, "trend_reference": 27.46475, "distance_from_trend": -0.086829, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.651885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060381, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.305305, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.059627, "excess_performance": -0.185252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086829, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051205, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060381, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138883, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129468, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059627, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.625232, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22083486, "relative_activity": 1.308093, "balance": 0.625232, "dry_up": 2.142631, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07689, "annualized_volatility": 0.322747, "from_high_reference": -0.230022, "from_low_reference": 0.204874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.46475, "fair_value_reference": 23.651885, "structural_low": 23.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.011264, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027938, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.197739, "worst_return": -0.02753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.000476, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.105228, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113162, "worst_return": -0.114114, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.097909, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.044634, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209918, "worst_return": -0.014099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.804059, "energy": 42.300954, "activity_lines": [ 26.016, 26.382909, 27.367434, 27.637698 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.71, "volume": 24807723, "typical_volume": 16672648.05, "trend": 27.36229, "fair_value": 23.62777, "relative_strength": -7.136494, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.754605, "energy": 27.877643, "activity_lines": [ 25.895333, 26.175636, 27.126324, 27.538617 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.08, "volume": 22083486, "typical_volume": 16882202.55, "trend": 27.46475, "fair_value": 23.651885, "relative_strength": -12.305305, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.555463, "energy": 43.535363, "activity_lines": [ 25.636, 25.918, 26.842457, 27.391373 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }