{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4623439d-15e2-4780-9bd5-7ad364842b09", "symbol": "QQCE-F", "name": "Invesco ESG NASDAQ 100 ETF Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.721, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.405, "architecture_energy": 35.117, "architecture_maturity": 64.084, "architecture_confidence": 83.614, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.58, "rotation_up": 34.13, "upward_expansion": 60.79, "deceleration": 88.13, "rotation_down": 27.74, "downward_expansion": 22.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.872666, 35.024346, 34.63131, 33.542272 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.419998, "trend_reference": 32.266677, "distance_from_trend": 0.097727, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.666021, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.380035, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.08792, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.191117, "excess_performance": 0.070696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097727, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051744, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.380035, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049643, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010879, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.191117, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.869124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 258, "relative_activity": 0.111276, "balance": 0.869124, "dry_up": 0.619137, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032023, "annualized_volatility": 0.245529, "from_high_reference": -0.022851, "from_low_reference": 0.311366 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.266677, "fair_value_reference": 25.666021, "structural_low": 27.01, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020791, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006418, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.075908, "worst_return": -0.054692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.10358, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132324, "worst_return": 0.038518, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.175092, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.055711, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183164, "worst_return": 0.167021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068885, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107332, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.054333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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35.439465, 34.85243, 32.898432, 32.051904 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 34.769199, "volume": 610, "typical_volume": 2363.7, "trend": 31.382828, "fair_value": 25.037248, "relative_strength": 3.074084, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.191761, "energy": 63.657965, "activity_lines": [ 35.284891, 34.969836, 33.205912, 32.280144 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 35.209999, "volume": 1902, "typical_volume": 2382.6, "trend": 31.532231, "fair_value": 25.146736, "relative_strength": 3.523144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.434963, "energy": 62.269937, "activity_lines": [ 35.24327, 35.103038, 33.531409, 32.527058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 35.610001, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 2317.1, "trend": 31.69397, "fair_value": 25.258788, "relative_strength": 4.521574, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.38248, "energy": 61.991561, "activity_lines": [ 35.38355, 35.257695, 33.866036, 32.79014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.23, "volume": 608, "typical_volume": 2235.25, "trend": 31.85602, "fair_value": 25.361687, "relative_strength": 3.519726, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.21628, "energy": 57.044452, "activity_lines": [ 35.333781, 35.278731, 34.135649, 33.018271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.720001, "volume": 450, "typical_volume": 2144.7, "trend": 31.989756, "fair_value": 25.461317, "relative_strength": 1.784217, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.458014, "energy": 48.279399, "activity_lines": [ 35.102614, 35.196858, 34.328961, 33.203044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.939999, "volume": 4426, "typical_volume": 2361.0, "trend": 32.11221, "fair_value": 25.558925, "relative_strength": -0.002642, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.562486, "energy": 33.909104, "activity_lines": [ 34.713333, 34.973152, 34.421356, 33.328866 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.419998, "volume": 258, "typical_volume": 2318.55, "trend": 32.266677, "fair_value": 25.666021, "relative_strength": 1.08792, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.405398, "energy": 35.116644, "activity_lines": [ 34.872666, 35.024346, 34.63131, 33.542272 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }