{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4629b525-15d7-4d16-b664-9db988d3c4d0", "symbol": "MEV", "name": "Mevim S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.521, "architecture_energy": 78.703, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.768, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.6, "rotation_up": 78.51, "upward_expansion": 59.52, "deceleration": 18.97, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 32.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.105867, 0.082464, 0.068714, 0.07164 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.0792, "distance_from_trend": 0.515152, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.684321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.824644, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.069276, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.153846, "excess_performance": -0.017046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.515152, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.216488, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.824644, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100217, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.460429, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153846, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.558938, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 338548, "relative_activity": 2.511868, "balance": 2.558938, "dry_up": 2.439572, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124359, "annualized_volatility": 1.277157, "from_high_reference": -0.752577, "from_low_reference": 3.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0792, "fair_value_reference": 0.684321, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.146341, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.123569, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.09434, "worst_return": -0.14791, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.17528, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.154405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.057878, "worst_return": -0.292683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.298996, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.395709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109325, "worst_return": -0.707317, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.522912, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.663794, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.33119, "worst_return": -0.714634, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-09-30", "end": "2022-11-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-02", "end": "2022-12-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.202899, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-01-06", "end": "2023-03-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-03-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04461, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-08-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041322, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065041, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.530412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151376, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050979, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.883956, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.42, "volume": 10528, "typical_volume": 58451.4, "trend": 2.499667, "fair_value": 4.528333, "relative_strength": -17.747838, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.593958, "energy": 11.330944, 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0.054802, 0.066624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.065, "volume": 302652, "typical_volume": 81418.4, "trend": 0.08005, "fair_value": 0.740407, "relative_strength": -68.28555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.295389, "energy": 45.798088, "activity_lines": [ 0.047167, 0.043564, 0.054609, 0.065543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0745, "volume": 12236, "typical_volume": 80934.0, "trend": 0.078867, "fair_value": 0.72691, "relative_strength": -61.278091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.809388, "energy": 26.88825, "activity_lines": [ 0.057633, 0.049136, 0.055416, 0.065185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.09, "volume": 222460, "typical_volume": 90651.4, "trend": 0.078217, "fair_value": 0.712744, "relative_strength": -50.890667, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.447439, "energy": 36.675593, "activity_lines": [ 0.070667, 0.057355, 0.057815, 0.065903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.126, "volume": 741972, "typical_volume": 117922.0, "trend": 0.078867, "fair_value": 0.698679, "relative_strength": -28.693253, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 56.785492, "energy": 61.83355, "activity_lines": [ 0.092167, 0.071209, 0.063639, 0.068986 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 338548, "typical_volume": 134779.4, "trend": 0.0792, "fair_value": 0.684321, "relative_strength": -31.069276, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.521152, "energy": 78.702508, "activity_lines": [ 0.105867, 0.082464, 0.068714, 0.07164 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }