{ "ticker": { "uuid": "462b9ad0-4e6e-4585-87a8-39e7f3efef9d", "symbol": "TUYA", "name": "Tuya Inc ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.599, "architecture_energy": 50.764, "architecture_maturity": 28.687, "architecture_confidence": 94.513, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 21.11, "upward_expansion": 7.77, "deceleration": 48.84, "rotation_down": 57.32, "downward_expansion": 81.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.732667, 1.765818, 1.919571, 2.024953 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.8, "trend_reference": 2.119852, "distance_from_trend": -0.150884, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.998271, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.227809, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.144371, "excess_performance": -0.269996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150884, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049987, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099221, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21741, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144371, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708582, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2205179, "relative_activity": 0.485466, "balance": 0.708582, "dry_up": 0.694998, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115526, "annualized_volatility": 0.393883, "from_high_reference": -0.358278, "from_low_reference": 0.118012 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.119852, "fair_value_reference": 1.998271, "structural_low": 1.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.005439, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.790476, "worst_return": -0.179347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.058643, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.006939, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.772278, "worst_return": -0.176796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.1413, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034833, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.920792, "worst_return": -0.12852, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005525, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.409179, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.240876, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042254, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050981, "active": false }, 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"trend": 2.146372, "fair_value": 1.993972, "relative_strength": -31.407313, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.026627, "energy": 68.397317, "activity_lines": [ 1.736667, 1.81, 1.989698, 2.076414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 2773257, "typical_volume": 5682793.2, "trend": 2.131275, "fair_value": 1.995501, "relative_strength": -30.350429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.586148, "energy": 59.643818, "activity_lines": [ 1.710667, 1.773455, 1.947286, 2.046326 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.8, "volume": 2205179, "typical_volume": 4542397.55, "trend": 2.119852, "fair_value": 1.998271, "relative_strength": -27.227809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.598988, "energy": 50.763639, "activity_lines": [ 1.732667, 1.765818, 1.919571, 2.024953 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }