{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46382d5a-0257-42ae-a4f0-2504c2acf73c", "symbol": "URJP", "name": "Sprott Junior Uranium Miners UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.996, "architecture_energy": 63.654, "architecture_maturity": 27.067, "architecture_confidence": 95.022, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.11, "rotation_up": 19.49, "upward_expansion": 12.38, "deceleration": 44.42, "rotation_down": 64.85, "downward_expansion": 88.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 593.823333, 607.648182, 656.370239, 695.16828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 631.45, "trend_reference": 747.966666, "distance_from_trend": -0.155778, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 603.0381, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.536674, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.186276, "excess_performance": -0.237511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155778, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185367, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.319616, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186276, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.443787, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 174132, "relative_activity": 1.703511, "balance": 0.443787, "dry_up": 0.980665, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09361, "annualized_volatility": 0.467908, "from_high_reference": -0.390426, "from_low_reference": 0.343225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 747.966666, "fair_value_reference": 603.0381, "structural_low": 549.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.061078, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.082795, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.061078, "worst_return": -0.061078, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"2026-07-03", "close": 633.35, "volume": 9721, "typical_volume": 134917.65, "trend": 765.49, "fair_value": 603.474717, "relative_strength": -16.830439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.864456, "energy": 76.294546, "activity_lines": [ 647.203333, 674.711819, 722.182382, 749.353441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 622.9, "volume": 75011, "typical_volume": 129674.65, "trend": 764.511666, "fair_value": 603.630119, "relative_strength": -16.916802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.371936, "energy": 71.989629, "activity_lines": [ 636.726667, 660.178182, 709.200239, 740.154086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 555.8, "volume": 66248, "typical_volume": 123547.3, "trend": 760.406666, "fair_value": 603.250515, "relative_strength": -26.425396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.540119, "energy": 87.614973, "activity_lines": [ 607.476667, 636.488182, 691.134287, 726.688817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 588.0, "volume": 75597, "typical_volume": 114946.6, "trend": 757.63, "fair_value": 603.130433, "relative_strength": -23.031515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.864485, "energy": 80.467574, "activity_lines": [ 594.99, 623.160909, 677.767382, 715.565807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 562.9, "volume": 84995, "typical_volume": 103088.55, "trend": 752.881667, "fair_value": 602.816132, "relative_strength": -27.177511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.005534, "energy": 82.046801, "activity_lines": [ 580.87, 607.895454, 663.220715, 703.002581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 631.45, "volume": 174132, "typical_volume": 102219.45, "trend": 747.966666, "fair_value": 603.0381, "relative_strength": -18.536674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.995721, "energy": 63.653689, "activity_lines": [ 593.823333, 607.648182, 656.370239, 695.16828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }