{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46386a9c-c4e2-46b4-ab14-fc43beacb53d", "symbol": "VIV", "name": "Telefonica Brasil SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.467, "architecture_energy": 46.533, "architecture_maturity": 16.339, "architecture_confidence": 95.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.64, "rotation_up": 21.01, "upward_expansion": 6.4, "deceleration": 47.27, "rotation_down": 49.69, "downward_expansion": 75.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.022067, 13.186006, 13.499371, 13.859929 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.01, "trend_reference": 14.097411, "distance_from_trend": -0.148071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.94025, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208219, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.284572, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.15718, "excess_performance": -0.282805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033393, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.389207, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.274528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15718, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.590436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5949430, "relative_activity": 1.106244, "balance": 0.590436, "dry_up": 1.255519, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072105, "annualized_volatility": 0.342033, "from_high_reference": -0.274075, "from_low_reference": 0.097968 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.097411, "fair_value_reference": 9.94025, "structural_low": 11.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.002665, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.030647, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.13489, "worst_return": -0.085262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047065, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000141, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.147661, "worst_return": -0.143707, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.001692, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.115369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.5584, "worst_return": -0.151581, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 33.097842, "activity_lines": [ 13.101368, 13.225659, 13.946608, 14.05907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.875438, "volume": 5288717, "typical_volume": 5098460.7, "trend": 13.868811, "fair_value": 9.789358, "relative_strength": -3.106338, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.191019, "energy": 22.208275, "activity_lines": [ 13.378024, 13.284757, 13.893801, 14.064126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.885391, "volume": 5285074, "typical_volume": 5102693.45, "trend": 13.95737, "fair_value": 9.832209, "relative_strength": -1.716722, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.590802, "energy": 12.696813, "activity_lines": [ 13.585183, 13.370614, 13.847453, 14.065195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.984928, "volume": 5914563, "typical_volume": 5127216.45, "trend": 14.046392, "fair_value": 9.873888, "relative_strength": -0.680399, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.87623, "energy": 13.801205, "activity_lines": [ 13.788634, 13.496348, 13.821551, 14.066973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.92, "volume": 9859889, "typical_volume": 5380556.05, "trend": 14.092799, "fair_value": 9.909772, "relative_strength": -9.238123, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.48393, "energy": 25.54103, "activity_lines": [ 13.54236, 13.420654, 13.699569, 13.994303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.01, "volume": 5949430, "typical_volume": 5378047.2, "trend": 14.097411, "fair_value": 9.94025, "relative_strength": -18.284572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.466501, "energy": 46.532898, "activity_lines": [ 13.022067, 13.186006, 13.499371, 13.859929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }