{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4640cf41-fe54-4b31-8938-4ce30fe27121", "symbol": "XSGI", "name": "Xtrackers S&P Global Infrastructure Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.811, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.727, "architecture_energy": 8.885, "architecture_maturity": 22.328, "architecture_confidence": 77.815, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.06, "rotation_up": 22.56, "upward_expansion": 55.11, "deceleration": 87.42, "rotation_down": 32.86, "downward_expansion": 21.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.645, 60.951818, 60.763929, 60.659032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 59.795, "trend_reference": 60.199, "distance_from_trend": -0.006711, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.999819, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.277843, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.029972, "excess_performance": -0.021264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006711, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029972, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.279201, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28109, "relative_activity": 4.63975, "balance": 0.279201, "dry_up": 1.587492, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019359, "annualized_volatility": 0.118109, "from_high_reference": -0.186758, "from_low_reference": 0.140871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.199, "fair_value_reference": 49.999819, "structural_low": 58.15, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006176, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.006277, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.031332, "worst_return": -0.021242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02051, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031222, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.053463, "worst_return": -0.009613, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.036777, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099076, "worst_return": -0.025522, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032574, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044096, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019477, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011072, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.079101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", 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"activity_lines": [ 61.503333, 60.922091, 60.714833, 60.297323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 60.75, "volume": 2678, "typical_volume": 5153.1, "trend": 59.483333, "fair_value": 49.501838, "relative_strength": -0.307206, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.794863, "energy": 57.927394, "activity_lines": [ 61.365, 60.951909, 60.7165, 60.391118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 61.085, "volume": 1411, "typical_volume": 5007.6, "trend": 59.677, "fair_value": 49.624947, "relative_strength": -0.708547, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.346628, "energy": 49.130493, "activity_lines": [ 61.287, 61.040636, 60.751881, 60.494452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.8, "volume": 6375, "typical_volume": 5036.15, "trend": 59.896167, "fair_value": 49.753793, "relative_strength": -0.818164, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.863813, "energy": 36.519561, "activity_lines": [ 61.409667, 61.231091, 60.860952, 60.631419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.595, "volume": 2575, "typical_volume": 4889.95, "trend": 60.065833, "fair_value": 49.880043, "relative_strength": -3.846454, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.530865, "energy": 18.137917, "activity_lines": [ 61.096, 61.167, 60.85019, 60.676505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.795, "volume": 28109, "typical_volume": 6058.3, "trend": 60.199, "fair_value": 49.999819, "relative_strength": -5.277843, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.726786, "energy": 8.884857, "activity_lines": [ 60.645, 60.951818, 60.763929, 60.659032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }