{ "ticker": { "uuid": "464ab23a-e23c-488c-8962-ebfd0f1956c6", "symbol": "ASST", "name": "Strive Asset Management", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.097, "architecture_energy": 30.574, "architecture_maturity": 9.513, "architecture_confidence": 64.654, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.7, "rotation_up": 18.6, "upward_expansion": 19.44, "deceleration": 54.7, "rotation_down": 57.37, "downward_expansion": 49.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.826, 12.246727, 13.51031, 13.186501 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.48, "trend_reference": 13.053133, "distance_from_trend": -0.043908, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.856376, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.678817, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.949803, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047419, "excess_performance": -0.140034, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043908, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156535, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.678817, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.619498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134478, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047419, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.627607, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12510797, "relative_activity": 0.667702, "balance": 0.627607, "dry_up": 0.7133, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230717, "annualized_volatility": 0.994974, "from_high_reference": -0.950476, "from_low_reference": 0.777778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.053133, "fair_value_reference": 38.856376, "structural_low": 7.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.294343, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.28618, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.294343, "worst_return": 0.294343, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.136266, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.106251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136266, "worst_return": 0.136266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.064597, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.064597, "worst_return": -0.064597, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.362705, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.318313, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.386842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.287688, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095347, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086162, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 74.02, 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"trend": 13.473733, "fair_value": 40.087337, "relative_strength": -65.754414, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.912278, "energy": 38.560732, "activity_lines": [ 11.968667, 12.918, 13.844262, 13.389817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.11, "volume": 15094950, "typical_volume": 19225766.8, "trend": 13.267667, "fair_value": 39.434196, "relative_strength": -65.817174, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.504912, "energy": 42.44976, "activity_lines": [ 11.661333, 12.393273, 13.61581, 13.237318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.48, "volume": 12510797, "typical_volume": 18737083.65, "trend": 13.053133, "fair_value": 38.856376, "relative_strength": -61.949803, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.097075, "energy": 30.574453, "activity_lines": [ 11.826, 12.246727, 13.51031, 13.186501 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }