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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.128, "architecture_energy": 10.848, "architecture_maturity": 64.15, "architecture_confidence": 74.253, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.3, "rotation_up": 33.64, "upward_expansion": 23.15, "deceleration": 37.74, "rotation_down": 28.7, "downward_expansion": 57.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.792862, 38.210587, 38.401392, 38.897041 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 39.799999, "trend_reference": 40.208951, "distance_from_trend": -0.010171, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.07188, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045391, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.714229, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.099822, "excess_performance": -0.445554, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010171, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048793, "read": "Falling" 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"fair_value": 37.919218, "relative_strength": -35.618811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.89924, "energy": 59.747167, "activity_lines": [ 36.523506, 37.47332, 38.119222, 39.131941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.900002, "volume": 15880205, "typical_volume": 10651192.7, "trend": 40.780425, "fair_value": 37.97193, "relative_strength": -28.129409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.469027, "energy": 28.345318, "activity_lines": [ 37.450577, 37.775529, 38.238599, 39.057568 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 39.0, "volume": 15824963, "typical_volume": 11110869.1, "trend": 40.507731, "fair_value": 38.008251, "relative_strength": -31.641141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.630702, "energy": 18.748869, "activity_lines": [ 38.032209, 37.897214, 38.279378, 38.942701 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 39.799999, "volume": 4995455, "typical_volume": 11100338.2, "trend": 40.208951, "fair_value": 38.07188, "relative_strength": -28.714229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.127787, "energy": 10.848415, "activity_lines": [ 38.792862, 38.210587, 38.401392, 38.897041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }