{ "ticker": { "uuid": "464b2f52-6af6-4cb1-9ed4-c0e4bb1b073d", "symbol": "FSBW", "name": "FS Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.177, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.7, "architecture_energy": 31.687, "architecture_maturity": 27.542, "architecture_confidence": 46.759, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.17, "rotation_up": 41.5, "upward_expansion": 72.28, "deceleration": 70.1, "rotation_down": 22.33, "downward_expansion": 3.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.070595, 43.022918, 42.242221, 41.58793 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.06, "trend_reference": 41.0644, "distance_from_trend": 0.048597, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.064859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161747, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.41066, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.025598, "excess_performance": -0.161856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048597, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021019, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069562, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025598, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.501408, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125443, "relative_activity": 1.540857, "balance": 1.501408, "dry_up": 1.342604, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051914, "annualized_volatility": 0.180386, "from_high_reference": -0.054526, "from_low_reference": 0.182823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.0644, "fair_value_reference": 37.064859, "structural_low": 36.404437, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.009447, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.026055, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.171845, "worst_return": -0.155078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.06828, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.107145, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.115386, "worst_return": -0.237413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.046191, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.104049, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.056217, "worst_return": -0.149421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 129210, "typical_volume": 77846.55, "trend": 40.917569, "fair_value": 36.888609, "relative_strength": -1.881601, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.349748, "energy": 47.206069, "activity_lines": [ 43.36866, 42.881032, 41.900549, 41.344704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.622943, "volume": 97310, "typical_volume": 79624.25, "trend": 40.995371, "fair_value": 36.97896, "relative_strength": -3.860545, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.024947, "energy": 34.041961, "activity_lines": [ 43.126883, 42.926997, 42.061525, 41.454728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.06, "volume": 125443, "typical_volume": 81411.2, "trend": 41.0644, "fair_value": 37.064859, "relative_strength": -7.41066, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.700272, "energy": 31.687208, "activity_lines": [ 43.070595, 43.022918, 42.242221, 41.58793 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }