{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46531c1d-12bb-415f-933a-6eb81a2c3ad5", "symbol": "LAM", "name": "Laramide Resources Ltd.", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.909, "architecture_energy": 35.15, "architecture_maturity": 78.332, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.85, "rotation_up": 33.78, "upward_expansion": 15.12, "deceleration": 35.33, "rotation_down": 39.72, "downward_expansion": 74.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.617667, 0.622909, 0.661333, 0.696634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.565, "trend_reference": 0.740333, "distance_from_trend": -0.23683, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.749295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.245958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.888173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.331361, "excess_performance": -0.395067, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23683, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018343, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.245958, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248882, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288163, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.331361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.394256, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22317, "relative_activity": 1.616073, "balance": 0.394256, "dry_up": 1.442459, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127978, "annualized_volatility": 0.858656, "from_high_reference": -0.392473, "from_low_reference": 0.13 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.740333, "fair_value_reference": 0.749295, "structural_low": 0.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.000861, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019338, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005332, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.365854, "worst_return": -0.325581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.066995, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.06427, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.628866, "worst_return": -0.389535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.230769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.164706, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011905, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"trend": 0.740333, "fair_value": 0.745513, "relative_strength": -30.236826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.309979, "energy": 96.934473, "activity_lines": [ 0.581667, 0.625364, 0.687833, 0.720398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.745, "volume": 4851, "typical_volume": 11324.45, "trend": 0.744167, "fair_value": 0.747051, "relative_strength": 3.325817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.293493, "energy": 52.378916, "activity_lines": [ 0.626333, 0.640182, 0.689071, 0.720699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.755, "volume": 1850, "typical_volume": 10566.6, "trend": 0.748333, "fair_value": 0.748654, "relative_strength": 5.129427, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.774341, "energy": 32.033466, "activity_lines": [ 0.669333, 0.657364, 0.691881, 0.721398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.545, "volume": 50660, "typical_volume": 13007.45, "trend": 0.7455, "fair_value": 0.748878, "relative_strength": -25.458388, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.727425, "energy": 44.985655, "activity_lines": [ 0.636667, 0.636727, 0.674976, 0.70828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.565, "volume": 22317, "typical_volume": 13809.4, "trend": 0.740333, "fair_value": 0.749295, "relative_strength": -24.888173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.90889, "energy": 35.149519, "activity_lines": [ 0.617667, 0.622909, 0.661333, 0.696634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }