{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4655b550-99ed-4719-bd5a-306c1e187333", "symbol": "FGDL", "name": "FRANKLIN TEMPLETON HOLDINGS TRUST RESPONSIBLY SOURCED GOLD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.858, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.52, "architecture_energy": 42.526, "architecture_maturity": 57.599, "architecture_confidence": 69.361, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.14, "rotation_up": 26.02, "upward_expansion": 18.07, "deceleration": 66.53, "rotation_down": 49.19, "downward_expansion": 72.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.265333, 55.034678, 56.826559, 58.648747 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 57.86, "trend_reference": 60.966263, "distance_from_trend": -0.050951, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.828999, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.383251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.659533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.123068, "excess_performance": -0.248692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050951, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009232, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.383251, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220253, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134814, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123068, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468677, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72166, "relative_activity": 0.552355, "balance": 0.468677, "dry_up": 0.620588, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045016, "annualized_volatility": 0.242572, "from_high_reference": -0.220636, "from_low_reference": 0.30905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.966263, "fair_value_reference": 41.828999, "structural_low": 52.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.001109, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.014744, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.001109, "worst_return": -0.001109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.132941, "energy": 84.160774, "activity_lines": [ 54.85188, 56.246795, 58.671048, 60.312509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.41, "volume": 63747, "typical_volume": 235820.75, "trend": 61.384023, "fair_value": 41.263522, "relative_strength": -14.10692, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.166443, "energy": 83.9784, "activity_lines": [ 54.280607, 55.468447, 57.964677, 59.788202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.04, "volume": 102309, "typical_volume": 224156.05, "trend": 61.16943, "fair_value": 41.442044, "relative_strength": -12.632407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.500603, "energy": 67.556655, "activity_lines": [ 54.090667, 54.979191, 57.397449, 59.314394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.03, "volume": 86101, "typical_volume": 144851.0, "trend": 61.038097, "fair_value": 41.622044, "relative_strength": -13.587494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.455835, "energy": 59.472361, "activity_lines": [ 54.037333, 54.605025, 56.899218, 58.853786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.86, "volume": 72166, "typical_volume": 130651.6, "trend": 60.966263, "fair_value": 41.828999, "relative_strength": -10.659533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.519867, "energy": 42.525547, "activity_lines": [ 55.265333, 55.034678, 56.826559, 58.648747 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }