{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46576c85-b4af-40dc-ab23-e907099a7869", "symbol": "IN-FF14", "name": "INVESCO MARKETS PL", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.194, "architecture_energy": 66.828, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.612, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.0, "rotation_up": 29.9, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 47.7, "downward_expansion": 73.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 579.826667, 1531.689091, 16877.709048, 26617.236344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 590.3, "trend_reference": 37847.32, "distance_from_trend": -0.984403, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47895.450909, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987675, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.835223, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989444, "excess_performance": -1.018344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984403, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301727, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987675, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.994686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988352, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.716693, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.235285, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4980, "relative_activity": 1.665273, "balance": 1.235285, "dry_up": 1.452349, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.675276, "annualized_volatility": 6.365702, "from_high_reference": -0.989866, "from_low_reference": 0.09477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37847.32, "fair_value_reference": 47895.450909, "structural_low": 539.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0074, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0119, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.029814, "worst_return": -0.989312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.989636, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.902355, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.989636, "worst_return": -0.989636, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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-98.868687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.61694, "energy": 67.512482, "activity_lines": [ 573.233333, 3416.167273, 19840.724762, 29140.269247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 590.3, "volume": 4980, "typical_volume": 2990.5, "trend": 37847.32, "fair_value": 47895.450909, "relative_strength": -98.835223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.193933, "energy": 66.827758, "activity_lines": [ 579.826667, 1531.689091, 16877.709048, 26617.236344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }