{ "ticker": { "uuid": "465ff7ba-a7e5-4151-8ef7-6f6ef2e6f49b", "symbol": "605507", "name": "Guobang Pharma Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.134, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.326, "architecture_energy": 19.268, "architecture_maturity": 69.246, "architecture_confidence": 60.182, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.14, "rotation_up": 29.94, "upward_expansion": 17.94, "deceleration": 46.8, "rotation_down": 23.0, "downward_expansion": 54.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.975334, 15.752727, 15.84038, 16.344347 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.200001, "trend_reference": 16.985828, "distance_from_trend": -0.046264, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.887221, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16654, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.406804, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.140939, "excess_performance": -0.097736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046264, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008855, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16654, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069561, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.616614, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44469398, "relative_activity": 1.903287, "balance": 0.616614, "dry_up": 1.799616, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06766, "annualized_volatility": 0.32654, "from_high_reference": -0.213149, "from_low_reference": 0.112637 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.985828, "fair_value_reference": 13.887221, "structural_low": 14.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.004332, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000347, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.113366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033097, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02206, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.236853, "worst_return": -0.193839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009982, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.302457, "worst_return": -0.240758, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": 1.801818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.643119, "energy": 41.730576, "activity_lines": [ 15.481333, 15.522274, 15.973078, 16.543763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.53, "volume": 49130705, "typical_volume": 23064300.1, "trend": 17.016094, "fair_value": 13.85976, "relative_strength": -2.493389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.150258, "energy": 28.969567, "activity_lines": [ 15.540667, 15.511733, 15.870109, 16.446903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.24, "volume": 31714567, "typical_volume": 22834464.85, "trend": 17.013531, "fair_value": 13.874501, "relative_strength": 1.419021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.919008, "energy": 21.23494, "activity_lines": [ 15.816, 15.642182, 15.84799, 16.396832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.200001, "volume": 44469398, "typical_volume": 23364520.65, "trend": 16.985828, "fair_value": 13.887221, "relative_strength": -1.406804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.326474, "energy": 19.267831, "activity_lines": [ 15.975334, 15.752727, 15.84038, 16.344347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }