{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4661d1b0-ab3b-40dd-86bb-e02bc7a73b62", "symbol": "USA", "name": "Liberty All-Star Equity Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.37, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.341, "architecture_energy": 53.44, "architecture_maturity": 27.831, "architecture_confidence": 55.062, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.84, "rotation_up": 66.3, "upward_expansion": 56.97, "deceleration": 25.36, "rotation_down": 17.6, "downward_expansion": 17.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.842057, 5.763917, 5.745003, 5.723384 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.01, "trend_reference": 5.735364, "distance_from_trend": 0.047885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.625766, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068299, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.868046, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019258, "excess_performance": -0.106367, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047885, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068299, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01786, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07868, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043547, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019258, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.080603, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7154121, "relative_activity": 1.090101, "balance": 1.080603, "dry_up": 1.141017, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026882, "annualized_volatility": 0.142524, "from_high_reference": -0.018865, "from_low_reference": 0.141946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.735364, "fair_value_reference": 5.625766, "structural_low": 5.262944, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.030148, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": -0.0083, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.085294, "worst_return": -0.111455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.045903, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015184, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.035343, "worst_return": -0.147784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.075835, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.050099, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.071139, "worst_return": -0.127415, "sufficient": 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5.660748, 5.685495, 5.688096, 5.70576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.75, "volume": 8544204, "typical_volume": 6397707.15, "trend": 5.752062, "fair_value": 5.608075, "relative_strength": -9.462286, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.760474, "energy": 11.382275, "activity_lines": [ 5.699135, 5.691964, 5.69621, 5.705325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.69, "volume": 7223231, "typical_volume": 6434724.4, "trend": 5.741292, "fair_value": 5.612244, "relative_strength": -9.457639, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.496617, "energy": 13.811773, "activity_lines": [ 5.705958, 5.688797, 5.699028, 5.701321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.81, "volume": 7031552, "typical_volume": 6452577.55, "trend": 5.73673, "fair_value": 5.618147, "relative_strength": -8.165459, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.239827, "energy": 19.03301, "activity_lines": [ 5.749103, 5.708175, 5.713284, 5.705754 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.01, "volume": 7154121, "typical_volume": 6562806.5, "trend": 5.735364, "fair_value": 5.625766, "relative_strength": -7.868046, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.341335, "energy": 53.439656, "activity_lines": [ 5.842057, 5.763917, 5.745003, 5.723384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }