{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4666f3c4-2754-456b-ad2f-326703aeb7ea", "symbol": "PPR", "name": "Prairie Provident Resources Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.216, "architecture_energy": 26.756, "architecture_maturity": 21.963, "architecture_confidence": 69.766, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.64, "rotation_up": 22.14, "upward_expansion": 16.48, "deceleration": 56.24, "rotation_down": 46.45, "downward_expansion": 66.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.423333, 0.420182, 0.455071, 0.458753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.49, "trend_reference": 0.463667, "distance_from_trend": 0.056794, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.301026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.623374, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.971757, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.195122, "excess_performance": 0.074701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056794, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151829, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.623374, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044468, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107618, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195122, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.111111, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7200, "relative_activity": 0.477454, "balance": 2.111111, "dry_up": 0.431034, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117739, "annualized_volatility": 0.856384, "from_high_reference": -0.617188, "from_low_reference": 0.633333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.463667, "fair_value_reference": 1.301026, "structural_low": 0.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.424242, "directional_follow_through": 0.424242, "median_excess_return": -0.017097, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.413793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.094787, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.605263, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.230769, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.351181, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": -0.133333, "worst_return": -0.423077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.5, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.624246, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.333333, "worst_return": -0.538462, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.4, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.45, "volume": 51844, "typical_volume": 35648.2, "trend": 3.095, "fair_value": 3.670192, "relative_strength": -19.864943, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.797592, "energy": 37.174164, "activity_lines": [ 0.454, 0.486, 0.49019, 0.488753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.35, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 25655.0, "trend": 0.500667, "fair_value": 1.378974, "relative_strength": -50.383495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.648696, "energy": 68.057463, "activity_lines": [ 0.416, 0.458091, 0.478095, 0.478172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.35, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 22910.0, "trend": 0.492333, "fair_value": 1.361026, "relative_strength": -49.199438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.654791, "energy": 74.067174, "activity_lines": [ 0.388, 0.432909, 0.466238, 0.468452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.35, "volume": 7500, "typical_volume": 17960.0, "trend": 0.479, "fair_value": 1.343077, "relative_strength": -48.185771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.469411, "energy": 79.118664, "activity_lines": [ 0.368667, 0.410364, 0.454762, 0.459269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.45, "volume": 8200, "typical_volume": 15780.0, "trend": 0.469, "fair_value": 1.323846, "relative_strength": -31.699083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.242766, "energy": 68.098796, "activity_lines": [ 0.389333, 0.410727, 0.453048, 0.457398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.49, "volume": 7200, "typical_volume": 15080.0, "trend": 0.463667, "fair_value": 1.301026, "relative_strength": -26.971757, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.216283, "energy": 26.756245, "activity_lines": [ 0.423333, 0.420182, 0.455071, 0.458753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }