{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46687657-2b93-4768-a7bc-51d1f8514bd9", "symbol": "UPL", "name": "Upland Resources Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.965, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.889, "architecture_energy": 6.218, "architecture_maturity": 25.317, "architecture_confidence": 70.181, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.17, "rotation_up": 36.33, "upward_expansion": 38.16, "deceleration": 34.98, "rotation_down": 27.48, "downward_expansion": 15.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0302, 0.029984, 0.029309, 0.029358 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.03, "trend_reference": 0.029722, "distance_from_trend": 0.009365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.023035, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30237, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.327957, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.051235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009365, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30237, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11304, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.04328, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05458, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.795378, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10010570, "relative_activity": 0.487008, "balance": 1.795378, "dry_up": 0.633378, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139205, "annualized_volatility": 0.515025, "from_high_reference": -0.285714, "from_low_reference": 2.076923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.029722, "fair_value_reference": 0.023035, "structural_low": 0.02055, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.016949, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.006967, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.854545, "worst_return": -0.217391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.083192, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.128058, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.333333, "worst_return": -0.521739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.796296, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.742639, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.090909, "worst_return": -0.652174, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.824477, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.694616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.518519, "worst_return": 0.130435, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.601562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.459459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.466667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.288889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 0.0315, "volume": 22545541, "typical_volume": 25311868.8, "trend": 0.029513, "fair_value": 0.022636, "relative_strength": 19.198054, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.029856, "energy": 16.540791, "activity_lines": [ 0.030123, 0.029529, 0.028935, 0.029263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02875, "volume": 16560250, "typical_volume": 25000648.35, "trend": 0.029522, "fair_value": 0.022787, "relative_strength": 6.499875, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.845284, "energy": 10.39433, "activity_lines": [ 0.029857, 0.029497, 0.028908, 0.029213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 11542226, "typical_volume": 22784047.05, "trend": 0.029588, "fair_value": 0.022913, "relative_strength": 8.5353, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.787365, "energy": 13.300246, "activity_lines": [ 0.030027, 0.029629, 0.029018, 0.029244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.031, "volume": 13963882, "typical_volume": 22665360.0, "trend": 0.029655, "fair_value": 0.022996, "relative_strength": 9.407183, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.819537, "energy": 16.905256, "activity_lines": [ 0.03033, 0.029925, 0.029216, 0.029335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.03, "volume": 10010570, "typical_volume": 20555239.45, "trend": 0.029722, "fair_value": 0.023035, "relative_strength": 4.327957, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.888944, "energy": 6.217882, "activity_lines": [ 0.0302, 0.029984, 0.029309, 0.029358 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }