{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4669a45b-f3a9-42cc-915f-ba9cc6c0efa1", "symbol": "AC5", "name": "Acinque S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.403, "architecture_energy": 29.731, "architecture_maturity": 8.869, "architecture_confidence": 83.673, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.51, "rotation_up": 17.27, "upward_expansion": 6.43, "deceleration": 43.64, "rotation_down": 58.18, "downward_expansion": 75.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.112, 2.135145, 2.141467, 2.147921 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.1, "trend_reference": 2.169251, "distance_from_trend": -0.031924, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.999254, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050392, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.965665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0625, "excess_performance": -0.233392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031924, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016956, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050392, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034288, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049094, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.818475, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5101, "relative_activity": 0.296454, "balance": 0.818475, "dry_up": 0.86786, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052811, "annualized_volatility": 0.182501, "from_high_reference": -0.139344, "from_low_reference": 0.039604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.169251, "fair_value_reference": 1.999254, "structural_low": 2.042991, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011094, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.072917, "worst_return": -0.070664, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.011145, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.074296, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.050251, "worst_return": -0.057416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019802, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.042481, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.152791, "worst_return": -0.080429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070817, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.114583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122186, "worst_return": -0.118428, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009756, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064356, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053708, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.004878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.100034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044643, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00885, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044643, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.78142, "volume": 5871, "typical_volume": 10776.6, "trend": 1.827896, "fair_value": 1.914756, "relative_strength": -11.349159, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.607148, 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"close": 2.1, "volume": 19858, "typical_volume": 16965.95, "trend": 2.180584, "fair_value": 1.995643, "relative_strength": -15.654579, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.923632, "energy": 14.00435, "activity_lines": [ 2.159097, 2.150691, 2.150015, 2.158018 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.1, "volume": 18293, "typical_volume": 17084.5, "trend": 2.175917, "fair_value": 1.997389, "relative_strength": -15.907074, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.404726, "energy": 23.416292, "activity_lines": [ 2.131667, 2.142372, 2.145646, 2.152819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.1, "volume": 5101, "typical_volume": 17206.7, "trend": 2.169251, "fair_value": 1.999254, "relative_strength": -17.965665, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.402925, "energy": 29.731123, "activity_lines": [ 2.112, 2.135145, 2.141467, 2.147921 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }