{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4670060f-1ea2-46a7-9f1f-59df1108a2cc", "symbol": "TWP", "name": "Thai Wire Products Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 51.491, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.206, "architecture_energy": 33.428, "architecture_maturity": 4.787, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.85, "rotation_up": 15.39, "upward_expansion": 5.59, "deceleration": 42.91, "rotation_down": 51.58, "downward_expansion": 78.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.131333, 1.139091, 1.141095, 1.145269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.14, "trend_reference": 1.151333, "distance_from_trend": -0.009844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.433013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.204473, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.941674, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008696, "excess_performance": -0.201021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008326, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.204473, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055476, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008217, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.229237, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87300, "relative_activity": 0.716837, "balance": 0.229237, "dry_up": 0.561235, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044534, "annualized_volatility": 0.245051, "from_high_reference": -0.179856, "from_low_reference": 0.14 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.151333, "fair_value_reference": 1.433013, "structural_low": 1.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.010939, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.014966, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.552632, "worst_return": -0.279721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.035065, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047811, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.295597, "worst_return": -0.258503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.149409, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.027841, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.267026, "worst_return": -0.259493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052288, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.082976, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01626, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042017, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", 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1.150182, 1.147429, 1.151785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.13, "volume": 49200, "typical_volume": 113950.0, "trend": 1.156333, "fair_value": 1.453972, "relative_strength": -19.55471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.09, "energy": 19.442687, "activity_lines": [ 1.138667, 1.147455, 1.145619, 1.149978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.11, "volume": 93900, "typical_volume": 116465.0, "trend": 1.154, "fair_value": 1.446657, "relative_strength": -20.605277, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.545661, "energy": 36.165989, "activity_lines": [ 1.125333, 1.141091, 1.142095, 1.146989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.14, "volume": 43000, "typical_volume": 117755.0, "trend": 1.152667, "fair_value": 1.440015, "relative_strength": -16.991296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.555917, "energy": 36.227724, "activity_lines": [ 1.126667, 1.140727, 1.141571, 1.146086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.14, "volume": 87300, "typical_volume": 121785.0, "trend": 1.151333, "fair_value": 1.433013, "relative_strength": -15.941674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.206313, "energy": 33.428432, "activity_lines": [ 1.131333, 1.139091, 1.141095, 1.145269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }