{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4671d9b0-cfe6-4289-a9c5-3334d8b946be", "symbol": "GILD", "name": "Gilead Sciences, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.127, "architecture_energy": 14.709, "architecture_maturity": 17.336, "architecture_confidence": 64.571, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.9, "rotation_up": 38.81, "upward_expansion": 39.04, "deceleration": 40.93, "rotation_down": 20.62, "downward_expansion": 38.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 115.298666, 114.377987, 113.547356, 114.928771 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 115.599998, "trend_reference": 116.539229, "distance_from_trend": -0.008059, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 86.634564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.091207, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.091029, "excess_performance": -0.265276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008059, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140912, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035484, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.091029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.464543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1025, "relative_activity": 2.755006, "balance": 5.464543, "dry_up": 1.639565, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040538, "annualized_volatility": 0.204402, "from_high_reference": -0.116163, "from_low_reference": 0.265975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 116.539229, "fair_value_reference": 86.634564, "structural_low": 107.620003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.02693, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.016023, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.104564, "worst_return": -0.034094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022445, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02258, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.133386, "worst_return": -0.068843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.041891, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.012255, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.387012, "worst_return": 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51.155559, "activity_lines": [ 110.083681, 110.9006, 114.152852, 115.027595 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 111.300003, "volume": 293, "typical_volume": 167.5, "trend": 114.283328, "fair_value": 84.651158, "relative_strength": -15.636076, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.463636, "energy": 51.406123, "activity_lines": [ 110.102182, 110.855074, 113.541978, 114.845744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 114.139999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 139.6, "trend": 114.672138, "fair_value": 84.985675, "relative_strength": -15.30603, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.467529, "energy": 40.655152, "activity_lines": [ 111.22062, 111.409577, 113.277182, 114.836497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 114.860001, "volume": 3222, "typical_volume": 288.0, "trend": 115.045504, "fair_value": 85.323765, "relative_strength": -13.472466, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.53026, "energy": 21.352212, "activity_lines": [ 112.586667, 112.032463, 113.158557, 114.848617 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 120.860001, "volume": 442, "typical_volume": 284.45, "trend": 115.527794, "fair_value": 85.678548, "relative_strength": -7.106524, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.888784, "energy": 27.946166, "activity_lines": [ 115.778667, 113.685438, 113.673039, 115.223746 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.220001, "volume": 476, "typical_volume": 303.0, "trend": 115.790737, "fair_value": 86.005241, "relative_strength": -13.16854, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.423886, "energy": 22.420106, "activity_lines": [ 115.913334, 113.942823, 113.573109, 115.139372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 113.059998, "volume": 497, "typical_volume": 323.1, "trend": 116.133578, "fair_value": 86.31454, "relative_strength": -13.763066, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.893129, "energy": 18.168073, "activity_lines": [ 115.241333, 113.924595, 113.406233, 114.963196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 115.599998, "volume": 1025, "typical_volume": 372.05, "trend": 116.539229, "fair_value": 86.634564, "relative_strength": -14.091207, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.126783, "energy": 14.709469, "activity_lines": [ 115.298666, 114.377987, 113.547356, 114.928771 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }