{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46757694-335d-4339-b5a0-a2cf100d1899", "symbol": "RNW", "name": "Renew Energy Global PLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 74.602, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.589, "architecture_energy": 29.968, "architecture_maturity": 42.321, "architecture_confidence": 42.715, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.59, "rotation_up": 36.0, "upward_expansion": 62.97, "deceleration": 65.15, "rotation_down": 25.19, "downward_expansion": 15.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.202, 6.210909, 6.045571, 5.834065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.17, "trend_reference": 5.618667, "distance_from_trend": 0.098125, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.309551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022117, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.08119, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.186538, "excess_performance": -0.000915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098125, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029982, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022117, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082686, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150812, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.142703, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.186538, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.065889, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4397849, "relative_activity": 0.793322, "balance": 1.065889, "dry_up": 1.11105, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069293, "annualized_volatility": 0.326878, "from_high_reference": -0.251205, "from_low_reference": 0.40707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.618667, "fair_value_reference": 6.309551, "structural_low": 4.385, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.01667, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.025375, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.167939, "worst_return": -0.142477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.037627, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.032909, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.130624, "worst_return": -0.104348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.107844, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.165067, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.128501, "worst_return": -0.183206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.141149, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.346978, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.057661, "worst_return": -0.224638, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063593, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089679, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.315399, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07485, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084859, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064976, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095791, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012064, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", 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54.560575, "activity_lines": [ 6.204667, 6.122182, 5.757476, 5.623548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.27, "volume": 4700937, "typical_volume": 5026506.95, "trend": 5.529, "fair_value": 6.30859, "relative_strength": -16.878357, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.795856, "energy": 44.738949, "activity_lines": [ 6.223333, 6.176182, 5.827905, 5.668602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.29, "volume": 9407888, "typical_volume": 5326016.55, "trend": 5.560333, "fair_value": 6.307949, "relative_strength": -12.241678, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.826649, "energy": 41.203851, "activity_lines": [ 6.233333, 6.217636, 5.896095, 5.717699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.15, "volume": 3738948, "typical_volume": 5373884.75, "trend": 5.582, "fair_value": 6.308462, "relative_strength": -12.106133, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.211101, "energy": 34.156355, "activity_lines": [ 6.206, 6.221455, 5.947286, 5.755742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.22, "volume": 7092114, "typical_volume": 5559575.75, "trend": 5.594, "fair_value": 6.309679, "relative_strength": -10.797903, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.522958, "energy": 33.504349, "activity_lines": [ 6.213333, 6.223455, 6.00119, 5.796903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.17, "volume": 4397849, "typical_volume": 5543583.25, "trend": 5.618667, "fair_value": 6.309551, "relative_strength": -15.08119, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.588636, "energy": 29.968465, "activity_lines": [ 6.202, 6.210909, 6.045571, 5.834065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }