{ "ticker": { "uuid": "467934c7-1b19-4567-8ed3-dc0c6ac1ff00", "symbol": "1080", "name": "Arab National Bank", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.494, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.805, "architecture_energy": 14.262, "architecture_maturity": 10.696, "architecture_confidence": 61.833, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.05, "rotation_up": 52.16, "upward_expansion": 32.65, "deceleration": 32.07, "rotation_down": 22.59, "downward_expansion": 26.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.38479, 21.16084, 21.200928, 21.216262 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.9, "trend_reference": 21.226773, "distance_from_trend": 0.031716, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.356386, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13141, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.710824, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018605, "excess_performance": 0.050434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031716, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004846, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.13141, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023887, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027108, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045397, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018605, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.478219, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4477535, "relative_activity": 0.68086, "balance": 1.478219, "dry_up": 0.913151, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033877, "annualized_volatility": 0.175096, "from_high_reference": -0.141166, "from_low_reference": 0.117347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.226773, "fair_value_reference": 19.356386, "structural_low": 19.6, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.017326, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.013284, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.106489, "worst_return": -0.147107, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.032368, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.00366, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.197933, "worst_return": -0.100446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.005526, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116719, "worst_return": -0.094459, "sufficient": false }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01311, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046805, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035597, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": 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"fair_value": 19.260284, "relative_strength": -2.989066, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.089401, "energy": 20.34897, "activity_lines": [ 20.861321, 20.986326, 21.195305, 21.196982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.171251, "volume": 5881495, "typical_volume": 6805140.15, "trend": 21.14903, "fair_value": 19.281246, "relative_strength": -4.10492, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.390615, "energy": 60.35349, "activity_lines": [ 20.594563, 20.825869, 21.095912, 21.133049 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.190001, "volume": 7426761, "typical_volume": 6620816.6, "trend": 21.163331, "fair_value": 19.304495, "relative_strength": -0.045482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.410931, "energy": 52.001657, "activity_lines": [ 20.701973, 20.866981, 21.095584, 21.135692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.700001, "volume": 6234795, "typical_volume": 6556739.9, "trend": 21.187835, "fair_value": 19.328788, "relative_strength": 4.292473, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.2536, "energy": 10.885884, "activity_lines": [ 21.010715, 21.000274, 21.14097, 21.170316 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.9, "volume": 4477535, "typical_volume": 6576292.4, "trend": 21.226773, "fair_value": 19.356386, "relative_strength": 2.710824, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.805408, "energy": 14.26152, "activity_lines": [ 21.38479, 21.16084, 21.200928, 21.216262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }