{ "ticker": { "uuid": "467dc1c1-0d88-4395-ac71-ea9523e26d48", "symbol": "A1DI34", "name": "Analog Devices, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.829, "architecture_energy": 17.273, "architecture_maturity": 53.766, "architecture_confidence": 74.862, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.61, "rotation_up": 15.97, "upward_expansion": 41.09, "deceleration": 86.54, "rotation_down": 42.16, "downward_expansion": 35.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.047868, 49.182155, 49.796899, 48.606752 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.450001, "trend_reference": 46.799778, "distance_from_trend": 0.056629, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.922907, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.549044, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.331057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.189365, "excess_performance": 0.246414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056629, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.549044, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.163311, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042892, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.189365, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.338329, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4323, "relative_activity": 1.800837, "balance": 1.338329, "dry_up": 1.284185, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074383, "annualized_volatility": 0.416928, "from_high_reference": -0.136817, "from_low_reference": 0.622165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.799778, "fair_value_reference": 31.922907, "structural_low": 40.637486, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.038525, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.040716, "regime_survival": 0.1875, "best_return": 0.192431, "worst_return": -0.070525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.042532, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.065362, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.432054, "worst_return": -0.193331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.081925, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005586, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.443303, "worst_return": -0.154619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037567, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.237396, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029973, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132268, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067298, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": 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52.710499, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 1342.0, "trend": 43.203924, "fair_value": 30.515693, "relative_strength": 29.301955, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.577181, "energy": 63.27319, "activity_lines": [ 52.280147, 51.196225, 48.207996, 46.231389 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 56.789501, "volume": 4700, "typical_volume": 1576.0, "trend": 44.072793, "fair_value": 30.742399, "relative_strength": 40.195873, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.295928, "energy": 72.692834, "activity_lines": [ 53.835243, 52.528539, 49.215101, 47.107878 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 50.358002, "volume": 5900, "typical_volume": 1851.0, "trend": 44.628442, "fair_value": 30.927877, "relative_strength": 20.372231, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.903612, "energy": 54.484329, "activity_lines": [ 52.995669, 52.416636, 49.52971, 47.513375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 49.215, "volume": 3060, "typical_volume": 1911.0, "trend": 45.142791, "fair_value": 31.106029, "relative_strength": 16.450062, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.150034, "energy": 38.895932, "activity_lines": [ 51.733201, 51.938997, 49.693647, 47.809282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.803001, "volume": 1940, "typical_volume": 1816.0, "trend": 45.56952, "fair_value": 31.28469, "relative_strength": 17.370333, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.852664, "energy": 30.573063, "activity_lines": [ 51.215901, 51.765258, 49.983976, 48.174457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.2575, "volume": 1440, "typical_volume": 1880.0, "trend": 45.911398, "fair_value": 31.44966, "relative_strength": 13.879655, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.756862, "energy": 23.251652, "activity_lines": [ 49.976667, 51.108495, 50.002611, 48.347875 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.450001, "volume": 1660, "typical_volume": 1940.0, "trend": 46.193027, "fair_value": 31.601704, "relative_strength": 9.133625, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.194586, "energy": 19.122496, "activity_lines": [ 48.431801, 50.17133, 49.841345, 48.382624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.700001, "volume": 4908, "typical_volume": 2185.4, "trend": 46.482989, "fair_value": 31.753491, "relative_strength": 7.005151, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.441917, "energy": 18.107491, "activity_lines": [ 47.659567, 49.399201, 49.693806, 48.415332 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.450001, "volume": 4323, "typical_volume": 2400.55, "trend": 46.799778, "fair_value": 31.922907, "relative_strength": 16.331057, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.829313, "energy": 17.273039, "activity_lines": [ 48.047868, 49.182155, 49.796899, 48.606752 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }