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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.298, "architecture_energy": 54.932, "architecture_maturity": 60.207, "architecture_confidence": 61.703, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.7, "rotation_up": 49.01, "upward_expansion": 76.79, "deceleration": 70.15, "rotation_down": 26.42, "downward_expansion": 8.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.272, 76.951636, 75.654619, 74.023656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 78.96, "trend_reference": 72.106, "distance_from_trend": 0.095055, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.817222, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320021, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.145241, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122867, "excess_performance": -0.002758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095055, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.320021, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034927, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031452, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004065, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122867, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.986652, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 440344, "relative_activity": 0.66004, "balance": 0.986652, "dry_up": 0.645442, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027616, "annualized_volatility": 0.138044, "from_high_reference": -0.001425, "from_low_reference": 0.338572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.106, "fair_value_reference": 59.817222, "structural_low": 64.713, "invalidation": "A 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70.991, "fair_value": 59.293079, "relative_strength": 4.348018, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.981081, "energy": 55.339813, "activity_lines": [ 76.634667, 76.130364, 74.373667, 72.876022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.59, "volume": 404175, "typical_volume": 736923.1, "trend": 71.351, "fair_value": 59.460372, "relative_strength": 5.003758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.99482, "energy": 50.218003, "activity_lines": [ 76.602667, 76.351818, 74.781905, 73.237247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.3, "volume": 416833, "typical_volume": 711793.0, "trend": 71.719667, "fair_value": 59.628845, "relative_strength": 3.33212, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.609814, "energy": 44.2458, "activity_lines": [ 76.46, 76.435636, 75.116571, 73.556538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.96, "volume": 440344, "typical_volume": 667147.5, "trend": 72.106, "fair_value": 59.817222, "relative_strength": 3.145241, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.297569, "energy": 54.932021, "activity_lines": [ 77.272, 76.951636, 75.654619, 74.023656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }