{ "ticker": { "uuid": "468f0d07-c13a-49aa-ab99-ace36977a221", "symbol": "ALNY", "name": "Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.166, "architecture_energy": 82.179, "architecture_maturity": 74.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.63, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.08, "rotation_up": 11.23, "upward_expansion": 20.64, "deceleration": 34.21, "rotation_down": 77.76, "downward_expansion": 91.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 237.806, 260.238, 276.876762, 287.72671 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 219.2, "trend_reference": 303.172333, "distance_from_trend": -0.276979, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 271.861346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.718446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.332033, "excess_performance": -0.519487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.276979, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141862, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193707, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.308146, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.477184, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132608, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.332033, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.802944, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13253188, "relative_activity": 1.931585, "balance": 0.802944, "dry_up": 1.651667, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146995, "annualized_volatility": 0.482901, "from_high_reference": -0.557663, "from_low_reference": 0.108134 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 303.172333, "fair_value_reference": 271.861346, "structural_low": 197.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.011991, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.000417, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.624228, "worst_return": -0.093575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.062734, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.079036, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.849055, "worst_return": -0.257075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.132037, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.311396, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.745181, "worst_return": -0.332033, "sufficient": true 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297.204, 295.669818, 299.292857, 307.409699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 267.47, "volume": 7875821, "typical_volume": 5861725.1, "trend": 319.924333, "fair_value": 271.054744, "relative_strength": -35.9548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.082541, "energy": 32.813103, "activity_lines": [ 288.770667, 290.694182, 295.732143, 303.740043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 271.77, "volume": 5739042, "typical_volume": 5879038.35, "trend": 315.630333, "fair_value": 271.519359, "relative_strength": -33.474355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.711009, "energy": 34.539093, "activity_lines": [ 282.796, 287.001818, 292.892619, 300.633312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 205.52, "volume": 18462287, "typical_volume": 6540464.65, "trend": 309.142, "fair_value": 271.647179, "relative_strength": -49.264739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.620874, "energy": 76.233348, "activity_lines": [ 255.159333, 271.540545, 283.976381, 293.529419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 219.2, "volume": 13253188, "typical_volume": 6861302.7, "trend": 303.172333, "fair_value": 271.861346, "relative_strength": -47.718446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.16571, "energy": 82.178651, "activity_lines": [ 237.806, 260.238, 276.876762, 287.72671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }