{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46910482-145b-4190-afa1-cfb84c3f6dd8", "symbol": "DUCON", "name": "Ducon Infratechnologies Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.657, "architecture_energy": 53.772, "architecture_maturity": 9.005, "architecture_confidence": 86.573, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.74, "rotation_up": 10.53, "upward_expansion": 10.59, "deceleration": 39.48, "rotation_down": 67.56, "downward_expansion": 86.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.048667, 3.138727, 3.246333, 3.252559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.16, "trend_reference": 3.283333, "distance_from_trend": -0.037563, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.473892, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.511886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.480863, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.181347, "excess_performance": -0.137638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037563, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065288, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.511886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058313, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181347, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.766, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1277855, "relative_activity": 1.039197, "balance": 0.766, "dry_up": 0.788829, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094206, "annualized_volatility": 0.543252, "from_high_reference": -0.510078, "from_low_reference": 0.423423 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.283333, "fair_value_reference": 6.473892, "structural_low": 2.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.034256, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.031326, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.288288, "worst_return": -0.335329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.108197, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.159446, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.115789, "worst_return": -0.328502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.235001, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.312965, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.516779, "worst_return": -0.356115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.199482, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.217317, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.036242, "worst_return": -0.511475, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084337, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.212121, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.32381, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058537, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128559, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062413, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.235669, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.233524, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.417266, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049834, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.15, "volume": 176633, "typical_volume": 1298547.8, "trend": 7.385, "fair_value": 11.25979, "relative_strength": -40.559295, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.116764, "energy": 21.506528, "activity_lines": [ 3.262, 3.353818, 3.328952, 3.325054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.03, "volume": 1004315, "typical_volume": 1548376.8, "trend": 3.328667, "fair_value": 6.5462, "relative_strength": -23.171311, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.154673, "energy": 42.109177, "activity_lines": [ 3.146, 3.289273, 3.306381, 3.304753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.01, "volume": 854056, "typical_volume": 1484958.55, "trend": 3.310667, "fair_value": 6.519982, "relative_strength": -20.816128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.434095, "energy": 61.656923, "activity_lines": [ 3.071333, 3.227636, 3.283238, 3.284194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.95, "volume": 743731, "typical_volume": 1372930.6, "trend": 3.289667, "fair_value": 6.495623, "relative_strength": -23.36224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.770304, "energy": 68.118613, "activity_lines": [ 3.012667, 3.160364, 3.254524, 3.260925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.16, "volume": 1277855, "typical_volume": 1229656.5, "trend": 3.283333, "fair_value": 6.473892, "relative_strength": -17.480863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.657477, "energy": 53.772467, "activity_lines": [ 3.048667, 3.138727, 3.246333, 3.252559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }