{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4693d51f-efa9-43dc-bd0f-aaaf181f2f00", "symbol": "002664", "name": "Xinzhi Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.556, "architecture_energy": 72.257, "architecture_maturity": 58.463, "architecture_confidence": 89.968, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.99, "rotation_up": 11.65, "upward_expansion": 16.3, "deceleration": 38.28, "rotation_down": 70.39, "downward_expansion": 89.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.874667, 16.698545, 18.20996, 19.274854 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.65, "trend_reference": 20.964004, "distance_from_trend": -0.205781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.904842, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.990533, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.352419, "excess_performance": -0.359819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091715, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.417394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.309905, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.314555, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38100999, "relative_activity": 1.032901, "balance": 0.314555, "dry_up": 0.832382, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135291, "annualized_volatility": 0.639781, "from_high_reference": -0.531444, "from_low_reference": 0.161898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.964004, "fair_value_reference": 17.904842, "structural_low": 14.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.011948, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000346, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.427932, "worst_return": -0.234841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009238, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.03594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.243074, "worst_return": -0.253312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032187, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.060851, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.600536, "worst_return": -0.341573, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -35.255785, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.462021, "energy": 55.997675, "activity_lines": [ 17.394666, 18.165778, 19.367185, 20.40231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.38, "volume": 29289990, "typical_volume": 37515250.3, "trend": 21.441821, "fair_value": 17.873887, "relative_strength": -39.145093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.594617, "energy": 67.763593, "activity_lines": [ 16.215333, 17.302545, 18.827348, 19.930813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.83, "volume": 24198799, "typical_volume": 36545750.4, "trend": 21.205535, "fair_value": 17.8861, "relative_strength": -31.443566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.303814, "energy": 72.738714, "activity_lines": [ 15.868, 16.863273, 18.466029, 19.56876 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.65, "volume": 38100999, "typical_volume": 36887373.1, "trend": 20.964004, "fair_value": 17.904842, "relative_strength": -30.990533, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.556084, "energy": 72.25699, "activity_lines": [ 15.874667, 16.698545, 18.20996, 19.274854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }