{ "ticker": { "uuid": "46987817-9703-4eea-ac93-4134767b6688", "symbol": "603088", "name": "JDM JingDaMachine (Ningbo) Co.Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.116, "architecture_energy": 59.782, "architecture_maturity": 20.203, "architecture_confidence": 94.045, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.07, "rotation_up": 19.15, "upward_expansion": 11.74, "deceleration": 43.67, "rotation_down": 57.64, "downward_expansion": 82.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.108667, 9.334971, 10.129044, 10.731188 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.6, "trend_reference": 11.297044, "distance_from_trend": -0.15022, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.064589, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.082047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.128065, "excess_performance": -0.084862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15022, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035291, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.345364, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179565, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128065, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.690342, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31524778, "relative_activity": 0.461573, "balance": 0.690342, "dry_up": 0.591849, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112689, "annualized_volatility": 0.524957, "from_high_reference": -0.317212, "from_low_reference": 0.213654 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.297044, "fair_value_reference": 9.064589, "structural_low": 7.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.142055, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.067636, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.286881, "worst_return": -0.083855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.256098, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.137889, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.873504, "worst_return": 0.12016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.148375, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.123021, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.900855, "worst_return": 0.074989, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-20.869192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.035495, "energy": 74.759881, "activity_lines": [ 8.997333, 9.470757, 10.460771, 10.983151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.18, "volume": 40134653, "typical_volume": 75119733.1, "trend": 11.321377, "fair_value": 9.050785, "relative_strength": -13.568498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.856168, "energy": 72.798608, "activity_lines": [ 8.966, 9.339197, 10.266479, 10.842245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.6, "volume": 31524778, "typical_volume": 68298544.3, "trend": 11.297044, "fair_value": 9.064589, "relative_strength": -12.082047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.115676, "energy": 59.782006, "activity_lines": [ 9.108667, 9.334971, 10.129044, 10.731188 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }