{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4698f2ff-de0d-4bc2-bea6-65f5666a192d", "symbol": "ORLY", "name": "O\u2019Reilly Automotive Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.604, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.22, "architecture_energy": 8.513, "architecture_maturity": 39.277, "architecture_confidence": 55.624, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.76, "rotation_up": 25.52, "upward_expansion": 18.6, "deceleration": 40.36, "rotation_down": 26.91, "downward_expansion": 54.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 89.708667, 89.109455, 89.679095, 90.409032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 93.53, "trend_reference": 91.758667, "distance_from_trend": 0.019304, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 82.714671, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130755, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.383084, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007323, "excess_performance": -0.194777, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019304, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024041, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143831, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053294, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007323, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.600333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26104414, "relative_activity": 0.77327, "balance": 1.600333, "dry_up": 1.165461, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05971, "annualized_volatility": 0.228127, "from_high_reference": -0.139677, "from_low_reference": 0.132462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.758667, "fair_value_reference": 82.714671, 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35.400033, "activity_lines": [ 88.383333, 88.905091, 90.21319, 91.139871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 86.05, "volume": 42658633, "typical_volume": 32372828.4, "trend": 91.962333, "fair_value": 82.177953, "relative_strength": -19.588861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.31132, "energy": 33.304569, "activity_lines": [ 87.470667, 88.289818, 89.743143, 90.747785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.4, "volume": 35841798, "typical_volume": 32697637.6, "trend": 91.800667, "fair_value": 82.341291, "relative_strength": -16.529567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.495341, "energy": 30.493611, "activity_lines": [ 87.339333, 88.045636, 89.438952, 90.453441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.35, "volume": 52771880, "typical_volume": 34085352.1, "trend": 91.767667, "fair_value": 82.51835, "relative_strength": -14.599747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.244051, "energy": 30.586269, "activity_lines": [ 87.820667, 88.175818, 89.354762, 90.295333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.53, "volume": 26104414, "typical_volume": 33758479.75, "trend": 91.758667, "fair_value": 82.714671, "relative_strength": -14.383084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.220307, "energy": 8.512948, "activity_lines": [ 89.708667, 89.109455, 89.679095, 90.409032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }